Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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092 FXUS63 KGLD 142252 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 445 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record to near record highs through Monday. - Heat Index values up to 107 degrees possible through Monday afternoon. - Heat Advisories in effect Today for the entire area and on Monday for those east of the Colorado border. - Increase in rain chances beginning Monday through the remainder of the week along with a cool down. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Overall there isn`t much change to the forecast in the short term. Around sunrise, an outflow from the Nebraska/South Dakota storms overnight will move south across the area bringing some stronger wind gusts up to 30 mph for a few hours. Today will be hotter than yesterday with highs ranging from 102 to 108 degrees. The Heat Risk is in the Moderate to Major categories with Heat Index values up to 107 degrees. Overnight lows will be 66 to 75 degrees with heat indices ranging from 66 to 75 degrees. Some records may be tied or broken today (See the Climate section below for current records). The Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM MDT/10 PM CDT tonight for the entire Tri-State area. During the late afternoon to evening hours, there is a slight chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms mainly west of Highway 83 along the dry line. CAM guidance suggests that should storms develop they will be similar to the last few days with potential for gusts up to 60 mph. On Monday, the upper high will spread further over the Central High Plains while a surface low/trough moves over Nebraska and Eastern Kansas. How fast the trough moves away will impact temperatures as cirrus clouds and eventually increased mid-layer clouds move over the area during the late afternoon and evening. Monday is expected to be slightly cooler than today with highs ranging from 98 to 108 degrees. Heat Index values could be in the lower 90s to around 105 degrees with the warmer values east of the Colorado border. Another Heat Advisory will be in effect tomorrow for those east of the Colorado border from 9 AM MDT/10 AM CDT to 8 PM MDT/9 PM CDT. Isolated to scattered showers are possible again tomorrow afternoon through the overnight hours. Showers and storms are currently forecast to develop east of the Front Range and move into the area. For any storms that move over, we are looking at another wind threat primarily with gusts to 60 mph possible given the inverted-v soundings seen with the CAM guidance. During the evening to overnight hours, a cold front will move south across Nebraska before eventually blowing across the Tri-State area through the 1st part of the day Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The long-term looks to be a fairly active period. A 500mb high pressure system will be sitting over the Four Corners and Great Basin area with a trough over the Great Lakes. This will put us under northwesterly flow from Tuesday afternoon through majority of the period. In the lower-levels, the flow starts off northeasterly, which guidance is showing will bring in more moisture. The northeasterly flow sticks around until Wednesday evening when southwesterly takes over. We are looking at with diurnal mid-level shortwaves coming off the Rockies through majority of the period, which would serve as a forcing mechanism form precipitation. On the very positive side, temperatures will be much cooler in the long-term than what is going on in the short-term. Tuesday looks to warm into the mid 90s and be the warmest day of the period. Wednesday will only get into the low 80s. If we have prolonged showers and heavy cloud cover Wednesday, temperatures may not make it out of the 70s. After that, we could see some more dry air mix into our low-level flow, and a mild warming trend looks to start up again. By Saturday, temperatures could be back near 90. If the dry air mixes in more aggressively, temperatures will warm quicker. Conversely, the opposite is true; is more moisture moves into the area, temperatures will remain cooler longer. Overall, low temperatures are stable, cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 445 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southeasterly wind around 11kts at taf issuance will veer to the southwest at similar speeds around 05z, continuing to veer to the west-northwest near 10kts by 13z. Winds continue to veer to the northwest then north at speeds around 11kts with some higher gusts through the rest of the taf period. High based showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to impact the terminal in the 02z-04z timeframe. The primary hazard will be wind gusts up to 50kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A south to southeasterly wind at speeds around 10kts at taf issuance will become light and variable around 06z-13z. After 14z, west-northwest winds up to 10kts continue to veer to the northwest then north and northeast through the rest of the period. Winds around 10-15kts with some higher gusts are possible after about 23z. High based showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to impact the terminal in the 05z-06z timeframe. The primary hazard will be wind gusts up to 50kts. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Sunday high temperature records Record Year Yuma 105 2010 Burlington 105 1925 Goodland 107 1934 Tribune 107 1934 Colby 109 1934 McCook 109 1954 Hill City 113 1934 Monday high temperature records Record Year Yuma 102 2006 Burlington 103 2000 Goodland 106 1925 Tribune 108 2000 Colby 108 1925 McCook 112 1925 Hill City 113 1934 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...99 CLIMATE...