668
FXUS63 KGLD 131733
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1133 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Landspout threat along the southern part of the forecast area
  this afternoon.

- Record to near record highs through Monday.

- Heat Index values up to 107 degrees possible through Monday
  afternoon.

- Increase in rain chances middle of next week along with a cool
  down.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Latest data is showing a surface trough stall over the southern
part of the CWA this afternoon. Over the boundary a weak upper
level short wave trough will form, and the LLJ nose will be
there too. Soundings over that part of the forecast area
indicate the dew point depressions should be high enough to
support cloud development. As such placed a mention of isolated
showers/storms over the southern part of the forecast area
during the latter half of the afternoon through the evening.

This area, especially Greeley and Wichita counties, looks
favorable for a landspout to form. This is where the dry line
and surface trough meet. There is surface vorticity along the
boundary and mean wind is nearly parallel to the surface trough.
A landspout occurred yesterday in Washington County, CO along
the dry line, so am thinking the similar environment today
should yield a landspout threat. The window for the landspout
threat will be 3 PM MT to 6 PM MT. Once temperatures begin to
cool the threat for landspouts should end.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 555 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The hot weather will continue as the ridge edges slowly to the east.
This morning, a surface low continue to move east-northeast across
the Tri-State area. Despite the surface low leaving the region, the
lee trough remains through the start of next week with little to no
variation in the upper pattern as well. High temperatures today will
range from 100 to 107 degrees today with overnight lows in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat Index values will be 95-105 degrees
this afternoon with overnight values in the 64 to 75 degree
range. In addition the Heat Risk values will be in the Moderate
to Major category for today. A Heat Advisory will go into effect
for the entire area today at noon and continue through 9 PM MDT
Sunday night. Sunday is, unfortunately going to be a few
degrees hotter than today with highs ranging from 102 to 109
degrees. The Heat Risk is in the Major to Extreme categories
with Heat Index values up to 107 degrees. Lows will be very
similar to tonight`s temperatures with heat index values ranging
from 67 to 76 degrees. Records may be tied or broken tomorrow
(See the Climate section below for current records).

Despite little to no change in the upper high, the lee trough is
expected to move away from the area on Monday. How fast the trough
moves away will impact temperatures as cirrus clouds and eventually
increased mid-layer clouds move over the area. Monday is expected to
look more like today temperature-wise with highs ranging from 98 to
108 degrees. Heat Index values could be in the lower 90s to around
105 degrees. Given the uncertainty around the trough and cloud
cover, we have decided against extending the Heat Advisory another
day for the entire area as those west of a Trenton to Leoti line
will likely be below the criteria. Another Heat Advisory may be
considered with the next few forecast packages. We also have
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon into the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The long-term looks to be a fairly active period. A 500mb high
pressure system will be sitting over the Great Basin with a trough
over the Great Lakes. This will put us under northwesterly flow from
Tuesday afternoon through majority of the period. In the lower-
levels, the overall flow looks to be southwesterly with diurnal
shortwaves coming off the Rockies. The southwesterly flow will bring
in some additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but how much is
a big question. If we get more moisture from stronger flow, we will
see more cloud cover and higher QPF amounts. However, the 850mb flow
looks to be moderately weak and sporadic, leading to less moisture
moving into the region.

On the very positive side, temperatures will be much cooler in the
long-term than what is going on in the short-term. Tuesday looks to
warm into the mid 90s and be the warmest day of the period.
Wednesday will only get into the low 80s. If we have prolonged
showers and heavy cloud cover Wednesday, temperatures may not make
it out of the 70s. After that, we could see some more dry air mix
into our low-level flow, and a warming trend looks to start up
again. By Saturday, temperatures could be back near 90. If the dry
air mixes in more aggressively, temperatures will warm quicker.
Conversely, the opposite is true; is more moisture moves into the
area, temperatures will remain cooler longer. Overall, low
temperatures are stable, cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will turn to the
south this evening. During the night winds will turn to the
west, but remain light. Sunday morning winds may be variable,
but generally from the north. Any storm activity this afternoon
will remain well south of KGLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Saturday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        108     1954
Burlington  103     1934
Goodland    108     1934
Tribune     107     1934
Colby       111     1934
McCook      108     1954
Hill City   115     1934


Sunday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        105     2010
Burlington  105     1925
Goodland    107     1934
Tribune     107     1934
Colby       109     1934
McCook      109     1954
Hill City   113     1934


Monday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        102     2006
Burlington  103     2000
Goodland    106     1925
Tribune     108     2000
Colby       108     1925
McCook      112     1925
Hill City   113     1934

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JTL
CLIMATE...