Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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727 FXUS63 KGLD 132210 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 410 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Landspout threat along the southern part of the forecast area this afternoon. - Record to near record highs through Monday. - Heat Index values up to 107 degrees possible through Monday afternoon. - Increase in rain chances middle of next week along with a cool down. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge centered over the Four Corners Region. Water vapor imagery shows dry air on the east half of the ridge, with a plume a moisture on the west half. For the rest of the afternoon a surface trough is expected to stall over the southern and southeastern part of the forecast area. As the afternoon progresses an upper level short wave trough will deepen over the trough, and the LLJ nose will form over it as well. There is very little CAPE to work with given the very dry, hot air. Any lift will be tied to the surface trough, so any storms that form should fall apart as they move off the trough. Am thinking the best area for storms to form will be near Greeley County where the surface trough intersects the dry line. Main threat with these storms will be wind gusts up to 60 MPH. The surface trough, especially Greeley and Wichita counties, looks favorable for a landspout to form. (This is where the dry line and surface trough meet.) There is surface vorticity along the boundary and mean wind is nearly parallel to the surface trough. A landspout occurred yesterday in Washington County, CO along the dry line, so am thinking the similar environment today should yield a landspout threat. The window for the landspout threat will be 3 PM MT to 6 PM MT. Once temperatures begin to cool the threat for landspouts should end. Tonight storm activity will end before mid evening. The rather warm lows will not provide much relief from the heat for the eastern half of the forecast area. Sunday the ridge moves slightly further over the forecast area. This will cause temperatures to be warmer than today; near to or . setting records. During the afternoon the dry line should be near the western edge of the forecast area. During this time an upper level short wave trough proceeds east. As such there may some isolated storms. Am thinking the dry line will also serve as a focus for storm development. Sunday night there may be some isolated storm activity over the northwest part of the forecast area. This activity will end mid evening as temperatures cool and the upper level short wave trough fills. Lows will be even warmer than tonight, further exacerbating the effects of the heat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 249 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Main focus for this period is the rainfall chances and the cool down mid week. Monday will be the final day for the hot weather prior to the cool down. The upper level ridge shifts slightly to the west and winds will be from the north. 850mb temperatures are slightly cooler than Sunday, so am thinking temperatures should be cooler. Given the continued hot weather that is similar to the weekend, decided to extend the heat advisory to Monday for all counties except East Central CO. During the afternoon an upper level short wave trough will approach from the west. This may lead to isolated storms that move into the forecast area Monday night and increase in coverage as dew points increase and the upper level short wave trough interacts with the low level jet. A cold front will move through, which will also aid in rain formation. Tuesday night another round of rain activity will move through the forecast area as another strong upper level short wave trough moves through. This looks to be a similar setup to the prior day. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles both have the best chances for rainfall for Tuesday night. Also noticed the probability is higher than yesterday for precipitation. A cold front may stall over the forecast area due to a strong trough to the northeast and the strong ridge to the southwest. If this does happen, the front will serve as a focus for repeated storm development. Wednesday through Saturday the active weather pattern will continue as upper level short wave troughs round the ridge and move over the forecast area. There was concern from the last shift regarding if much water vapor would round the ridge, or if the northwest flow would be dry. There is currently water vapor rounding the northern half of the ridge. But will this continue to be the case by mid next week? Would think the ridge slightly expanding west over the Pacific would aid in bringing more water vapor around the ridge not less. However the air is quite dry west of the ridge over the Pacific, and the weather pattern does not change much between now and the middle of next week. High temperatures have cooled for Thursday onward compared to what was seen yesterday. This may be due to the trough not moving off as quickly as was forecast yesterday. Slower movement east seems warranted given the unusually strong intensity of the trough for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A messy wind forecast with speeds a few knots either side of 6kts so cant quite go VRB06kts. Presently, an easterly component to the wind at speeds under 10kts is forecast from taf issuance through 06z, veering to the south then southwest at similar speeds through 10z. After 11z, west winds under 10kts flip back to east-southeasterly at speeds possibly up to 12kts from late morning through the afternoon. Confidence in the wind forecast is below average at the moment. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A generally light and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through about 16z Sunday before establishing an east to southeast component at speeds up to 10kts after 17z. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Saturday high temperature records Record Year Yuma 108 1954 Burlington 103 1934 Goodland 108 1934 Tribune 107 1934 Colby 111 1934 McCook 108 1954 Hill City 115 1934 Sunday high temperature records Record Year Yuma 105 2010 Burlington 105 1925 Goodland 107 1934 Tribune 107 1934 Colby 109 1934 McCook 109 1954 Hill City 113 1934 Monday high temperature records Record Year Yuma 102 2006 Burlington 103 2000 Goodland 106 1925 Tribune 108 2000 Colby 108 1925 McCook 112 1925 Hill City 113 1934 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for KSZ001>004- 013>016-027>029-041-042. Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Sunday for COZ090>092. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Sunday for NEZ079>081. Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ Monday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...99