200
FXUS63 KGLD 200518
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1118 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances of daily thunderstorms through Tuesday of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Across the region this afternoon, skies mainly south of I-70 are
currently sunny, but north of the Interstate there is a sky cover
mix due to thunderstorms forming along a couple surface troughs, one
along the CO/KS border and the other stretching eastward into
southwest Nebraska.

The main wx concerns for the short term period are going to focus on
the strong to severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and
evening, followed by some scattered chances this weekend.

The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis continues to show a broad dome of
high pressure over the western portion of the country. The latest
mid level water vapor imagery is showing a shortwave moving along
the eastern side of the ridge. This shortwave is interacting with
the aforementioned surface troughs to trigger the current round of
storms. Wind reports in the 60-70 mph range have already been
reported since the severe thunderstorm watch has been issued.

While the convection is occurring an hour or so earlier than the
latest CAMs (NamNest/HRRR) were showing, they both still have this
first line of storms followed by a second round with the shortwave
around 00z Saturday. Most of the CWA remains under an Enhanced Risk
for severe with a wind threat as the main hazard. Model soundings do
show inverted-v profiles with fairly decent DCape around 1000-
1200j/kg and SBCape/MLCape around 1300-1700j/kg near the 00z
timeframe. With PW values over an inch for most locations, locally
heavy rainfall on top of wind potential up 70-75 mph, and some large
hail are possible. This activity will push through the CWA by 04z-
05z tonight, with some lingering precip in the east going into
Saturday morning.

Going into this weekend, chances for rw/trw will persist(20-40%
Saturday and 20-50% Sunday) with the focus over the western half of
the CWA. This will be do in part to a couple shortwaves working
through the area in tandem with a surface low/front moving south
through eastern Colorado. Less instability this weekend than today,
so not looking for severe chances at this time.

For temps, it will cooler going into the weekend with highs on
Saturday in the mid to upper 80s giving way to upper 70s to the mid
80s on Sunday. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night will range
from the mid 50s west into the mid 60s east. By Sunday night, 50s
area-wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The latest extended guidance(GFS/ECMWF) continues to show an
amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country that
will shift slowly eastward through the week. East of the CWA there
is a mixed trough/cutoff low over the Iowa area. Circulation will
end up northerly aloft as a result through the period.

At the surface, high pressure east will make a push westward. Over
the western CWA, there is a low/frontal boundary that moves slowly
south along the CO/KS border Sunday-Tuesday. This boundary will be
the focus for a 15-25% chance for rw/trw mainly for western portions
of the area. A few weak shortwaves around the upper low will flow
south and interact with the surface feature, enhancing precip
potential.

Despite the low chances for rainfall, 850mb temps peaking around
+30c to +34c by Thursday-Friday, up from +21c to +25c on Monday is
going to allow for a warming trend through the week.

For temps, an upward trend will occur next week as highs on Monday
will range mainly in the lower to mid 80s, upper 80s to mid 90s by
midweek, then mid to upper 90s by next Friday. Overnight lows will
see an upward trend as well w/ mid 50s west to around 60F east
Monday night, giving way to 60s by Thursday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Light rain from the lingering thunderstorm will have minor
impacts at KGLD for the first hour or two of the TAF period
before ending. Some patchy fog will be possible at KMCK early
this morning around 12z. VFR will then prevail at both terminals
from mid Saturday morning through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...024