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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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866 FXUS63 KGLD 161036 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 436 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe chances during the late afternoon to overnight hours with wind the primary hazard, but also a few instances of marginally severe hail and flash flooding possible. - Temperatures closer to normal beginning tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 434 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 On Tuesday an upper trough extending over the Plains from south of the Hudson Bay in Canada and will flatten the upper ridge over the Central Plains giving us more of a zonal flow aloft. Moisture will continue trying to advect in from the Atlantic and NE Canada again today while weak shortwaves move over the Rockies and Central High Plains. This will provide another chance for showers and storms to impact the entire area and continue through Thursday morning. SPC has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for today as large clusters could develop over East-Central Colorado and Northwest Kansas during the late afternoon/early evening to overnight hours. A big question is whether or not the upper level divergence can help provide some lift so that whatever develops can interact with the 500-2000 J/kg of CAPE over the area. Shear is also slightly better today to promote more organized storms. The NAMnest seems to be more of the high end/"worst case" as it has more isolated to scattered convection developing out of Southern Nebraska into Northwest Kansas during the late afternoon followed by a widespread cluster of storms moving into the area from East-Central Colorado and impacting those generally south of the Nebraska border. Over the last few nights, the 06Z run of the HRRR has seemed to handle the convection fairly well, so we are trending more towards it today. The 06Z HRRR is also the "best case" as we have limited convection over the area around 00Z with majority of the strong to severe storms occurring just outside of our southern CWA border. Inverted-v soundings seen in CAMs along and south of I-70 indicate damaging wind gusts and large hail up to the size of quarters are the primary concerns; however, the hail threat will decrease as we move in the evening and evolve into more of a linear cluster. Heavy rain is also a concern with PWs greater than 1" favorable for flash flooding should storms begin to train over the same area or move slowly given the 15-20 kt storm motions. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Wednesday the upper trough will push further south and amplify the ridge over the Western CONUS placing the Tri-State area under NW flow aloft. Some monsoonal moisture will interact with the moisture stemming from the Atlantic to keep the rain and storm chances (up to 45%) continuing through the overnight hours where chances decrease to around 15-20% over the central columns of counties. SPC has placed those along and west of a Trenton to Leoti line into a Marginal Risk for strong to damaging wind gusts associated with isolated to scattered storms. High temperatures will be even cooler thanks to the cloud cover with temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 227 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Little has changed from 24 hours ago. The long-term looks to be a fairly active period. A 500mb high pressure system will be sitting over the Four Corners area with a trough over the Great Lakes. This will put us under generally northwesterly flow the period. There are some weak ridges and troughs that will keep the flow "interesting." GEFS is showing a trough moving south, over the Great Plains during the weekend that may force the high to retrograde more into the Great Basin area. This would also bring in a more northerly flow and give upper level support for convection. In the lower-levels, we look to start with southerly 850mb flow, which will pull moisture from the SE CONUS and bring it into the CWA. Friday night, the GFS, CMC-NH, ECMWF, and GEFS are all showing a low moving across the Northern Plains and extending a cold front down through the CWA. This front would likely be the best forcing mechanism in the period and could fire numerous storms. Due to how far out this event is, specific hazards are difficult to pinpoint, however guidance is suggesting we could have a high precipitation event. Some of the parameters supporting this include PWATS ranging from 1.2-1.7 inches, low-levels becoming easily saturated, a weak/moderately unstable column, and moderate shear. It would also not be surprising if this system shifts to Saturday night if the high pressure retrograde is slower than predicted. The aforementioned low-level low pressure system looks to move in a southeastern direction, which supports cooler temperatures with wrap around moisture and northerly flow. This would work to increase non- severe precipitation chances over the remainder weekend, but there are a few reasons why this precipitation may not occur. For example, we could get dry, southwesterly flow returning near the surface which would cause more virga than precipitation. On the very positive side, temperatures will be cooler! It looks like the high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 90s, with the warmest day being Friday. Overall, low temperatures are stable, cooling into the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1015 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. From taf issuance through about 08z, scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be near/over the terminal with perhaps some erratic wind gusts to 30kts or so. From 09z-17z, winds presently look to be light and variable. After 18z, light northwest winds veer to the north by 21z, northeast by 00z then from the east around 03z at speeds up to 10kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. From taf issuance through about 10z, scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be near/over the terminal with perhaps some gusty winds to 30kts or so. From 10z-23z, winds look to be light and variable. After 00z, winds establish an easterly component at speeds under 10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...99