040
FXUS63 KGLD 201550
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
950 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
  and into early next week. The severe threat will be low,
  though there is a marginal risk today in western areas for
  mainly hail.

- Warmer and drier conditions forecast for the mid to latter
  part of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

ESTF update sent out to add in a 20-30% chance for rw/trw this
morning for portions of northeast Colorado. Current radar loop
showing increased shower activity moving towards western
portions of our Colorado counties. CAMs showing some weak
potential activity this morning, so have carried through the
morning hours. No other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Northwest flow continues over the central plains between the
ridge over the Great Basin and a trough near the Great Lakes.
Perturbations in the flow will result in occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Today, widely scattered showers and
storms will develop by early afternoon and move southeast.
Environmental parameters show instability peaking at around
1500 j/kg (HREF ensemble mean) and deep layer shear of 25-30
kts. Coverage will be rather limited, but with the uptick in the
severe parameters can`t completely rule out an isolated severe
storm. Marginally severe hail will be the primary hazard, as the
models not showing much of a wind threat today. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s. Tonight, convection will
diminish by mid evening. However, models show a modest increase
overnight and into Sunday morning, most likely due to a
shortwave trough in the northwest flow. 06z HRRR is particularly
aggressive with precipitation along the Kansas and Colorado
border area, but other CAMs not so much, so confidence is low.
However, will increase POPs for the overnight and Sunday morning
time frame. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
through Sunday afternoon. Instability and shear parameters are
weak and not expecting any severe storms at this time. High
temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Showers and storms will
dissipate early Sunday evening with lows in the upper 50s.
Monday sees more of the same, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, western areas slightly favored, and weak
instability and shear parameters suggesting the severe threat
will be low. Highs will be in the mid 80s and lows Monday night
in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For most of next week, a gradual warming to above average
temperatures and low chances for precipitation remain in the
forecast.

The upper pattern continues to be dictated by a ridge over the
Western CONUS with a trough/low over the Great Lakes Region for the
mid-week. For this time period, the main question is how amplified
the ridge will get and can any smaller waves swing through the
Plains. This was hinted at previously, but guidance is favoring a
fairly amplified ridge that extends into Canada, but that struggles
to expand over the area. This puts us into more of a northerly flow
and would keep our precipitation chances fairly low. It would also
allow warm air to advect into the area. Otherwise, some ensemble
guidance continues to hint at a wave rotating through the Plains
around Thu/Fri. If this happens, temperatures would likely be a few
degrees cooler than forecast and storm chances would be greater
than the current 10-20% forecast.

By the end of the work week, there are multiple ways the pattern
could change. A trough from the Northwest CONUS continues to be
forecast to move into the Rockies. The question is does the ridge
get pinched in the Central CONUS over the area, or shift east and
replace the low over the Great Lakes. As long as the ridge remains
over or near the area, temperatures will remain above average with
the daily low chances for storms. As soon as the trough begins
pushing more into the Rockies, a stronger system will likely move
through the area and help cool us back towards more average
temperatures. Whether or not that occurs over the next weekend is
yet to be determined.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 949 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Some MVFR ceilings possible from 18z-20z. Also, VCSH from 21z
Saturday-02z Sunday. Winds, north 10-20kts through 21z then
shifting northeast. From 02z Sunday onward, light/variable.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Tempo for some MVFR ceilings 18z-20z. Winds northeast 10-15kts
through 00z Sunday, then light/variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN