201
FXUS63 KGLD 201953
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend
  and into early next week. The severe threat will be low,
  though there is a marginal risk today in western areas for
  mainly hail.

- Warmer and drier conditions forecast for the mid to latter
  part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Northwest flow continues over the central plains between the
ridge over the Great Basin and a trough near the Great Lakes.
Perturbations in the flow will result in occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Today, widely scattered showers and
storms will develop by early afternoon and move southeast.
Environmental parameters show instability peaking at around
1500 j/kg (HREF ensemble mean) and deep layer shear of 25-30
kts. Coverage will be rather limited, but with the uptick in the
severe parameters can`t completely rule out an isolated severe
storm. Marginally severe hail will be the primary hazard, as the
models not showing much of a wind threat today. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s. Tonight, convection will
diminish by mid evening. However, models show a modest increase
overnight and into Sunday morning, most likely due to a
shortwave trough in the northwest flow. 06z HRRR is particularly
aggressive with precipitation along the Kansas and Colorado
border area, but other CAMs not so much, so confidence is low.
However, will increase POPs for the overnight and Sunday morning
time frame. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
through Sunday afternoon. Instability and shear parameters are
weak and not expecting any severe storms at this time. High
temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Showers and storms will
dissipate early Sunday evening with lows in the upper 50s.
Monday sees more of the same, with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms, western areas slightly favored, and weak
instability and shear parameters suggesting the severe threat
will be low. Highs will be in the mid 80s and lows Monday night
in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, the amplified upper ridge
over the western portion of the country will continue a slow trend
eastward into the Plains region as next week progresses. Guidance
does begin to differ as to the strength of the ridge by the end of
next week as a 500mb trough digs into the Pacific NW. If this occurs
late Friday, there could be a shortwave ahead of this does
develop/push through the Rockies and into the CWA by next weekend.
For now, mainly dry and above normal conditions will ensue.

At the surface, persistent southerly flow from lee-side troughing to
the west will aid in warming the region up as the upper ridge crests
overhead next week. Gradient does tighten ahead of the potential
shortwave late Friday, which will allow some decent gust potential
up to 30-35 mph possible.

For temps, highs for the midweek period will range from the upper
80s into the lower 90s. Next Thursday onward, lower to mid 90s are
expected. Overnight lows will see an increasing trend with Tuesday
and Wednesday nights having a range from the upper 50s into the
lower 60s. Thursday night onward, 60s area wide w/ warmest locales
east of Highway 25 each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 949 AM MDT Sat Jul 20 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Some MVFR ceilings possible from 18z-20z. Also, VCSH from 21z
Saturday-02z Sunday. Winds, north 10-20kts through 21z then
shifting northeast. From 02z Sunday onward, light/variable.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Tempo for some MVFR ceilings 18z-20z. Winds northeast 10-15kts
through 00z Sunday, then light/variable.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN