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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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517 FXUS63 KGLD 070455 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1055 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms may form tonight through Sunday morning over the Tri-State Area. - A gradually warming, but overall tranquil, pattern is expected to move into the region starting early in the workweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Model data is continuing to show elevated strong to severe thunderstorms forming over the forecast area. Latest model data is showing an upper level short wave trough approaching from the northwest (thunderstorms near Akron, CO). Meanwhile a broken line of storms is forming over the central part of the forecast area on the nose of the low level jet. At the same time mixing ratios in the 700-800mb layer are increasing from south to north. Am expecting the upper level short wave trough to move over the low level jet around midnight. This should cause storm intensity to increase. While this is occurring, the increased mixing ratios will cause elevated CAPE to develop mainly east of the CO border. This CAPE will spread north through the night. The moisture advection will almost completely erode any inversion, allowing for wind gusts from thunderstorms to reach the ground. Since the low level jet will be overhead, SRH will increase overnight. This may lead to a tornado threat given the lack of any inversion in place. Storm movement will be 10-20 MPH, which may be slow enough for flooding to occur for any locations that receive prolonged heavy rainfall. Considered issuing a flood watch for the part of the Tri-State Area. However given the different locations among the model data for the storm activity to be (along Hwy 36 or Hwy 24 or Hwy 40 corridor), decided to not issue at this time. The severe weather threat will end from west to east as the upper level short wave trough moves out of the forecast area during the latter half of Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 335 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Across the region this afternoon, courtesy of a dryline moving through the region, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are currently impacting locales south of a line from Norton, Kansas down to the Russell Springs, Kansas area. Temperatures as of 300 PM MDT are ranging widely based on areas receiving/not receiving rainfall/having cloud cover. The range is 90s west into the 60s through 80s east. West and north of the dryline, winds are northwesterly with gusts 25-35 mph at times. Ahead of the dryline, south-southeast gusting 20-30 mph at times, not in any thunderstorms. The main weather threats for the short term period are going to focus on the strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening and again on Sunday. Currently, the region is under NW flow aloft per the latest RAP40 500mb analysis. The dryline over the eastern portion of the CWA continues a slow E/SE trek kicking up strong to severe storms. Currently we have had reports of 60-80 mph winds and large hail. Rainfall amounts have gone an inch plus in any of the slow moving storms. SPC continues a Slight Risk for severe in the eastern CWA which is working out well. Western portions of the CWA may be close to clearing in the next couple hours with all activity east. The latest CAMs continue to show around 00z Sunday for much if not all of the storms to exit the CWA as the dryline pushes south. A low forming on the western edge of the dryline overnight will move into southeastern Colorado. This will allow for a wind shift to more east- southeasterly over the area. The result will be increased low level moisture. Another 500/700mb shortwave moves through the area tonight allowing for a rekindling of showers and even some storms from east to the west. Model soundings do show the potential for some elevated severe towards 06z Sunday with the shortwave passage. The 40-60% chance for precip in the south this afternoon, will increase to a 30-50% chance overnight. Hail and wind threats do exist. A 40-60% chance for storms on Sunday as daytime heating commences. Right now, the best instability with be south of the Interstate closest to the remnants of the dryline/boundary. This is where SPC continues to carry a Marginal Risk for severe during the afternoon/early evening hours. There is a low wind/hail risk but the bigger factor will be locally heavy rainfall potential as the current dry airmass for most locales behind the dryline will see PW values up to 1-1.5". This could be problematic for eastern locales that have already seen heavy rainfall. There is no WPC Excessive Rainfall outlook for Sunday. All activity will continue on a north to south push overnight as a surface ridge builds in from the north. Expecting 20% chance for rw/trw to persist south of I-70 Sunday night, then as winds shift southeast towards Monday morning, some potential for linger showers in the southwest portion of the CWA before ending during the late morning. High pressure becomes more dominate through the day with increasing temps, but will be highly dependent on how fast clouds clear out over the area mainly south of I-70. For temps, daytime highs for Sunday will range mainly in the upper 70s, with a few isolated areas of 80F. Going into Monday, slightly warmer with upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Overnight lows for tonight will range from the mid 50s west into the lower 60s east. Sunday night, cooler with lower 50s west into the mid and upper 50s east. And for Monday night, mid 50s west into the upper 50s east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, the main focus in the extended period will be on the large dome of high pressure at 500mb that will sit over the western portion of the country, with an eventual eastward push into the Rockies towards the end of next week. This will provide a persistent NW flow aloft. At the surface, a general southerly flow will ensue with high pressure east and a lee side trough over the eastern Rockies. The flow does tighten towards the end of the week for some increased gust potential into the 20-25 mph range. These conditions will general provide the region with a mostly dry week with increasing near to above normal temps. The only chance for any precipitation will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night as a weak 500-700mb shortwave moves across the CWA on the east side of the upper ridge. The GFS/ECMWF do differ on the strength of this, but some instability is present, so have a scattered 15-20% chance in during the day, with only a 15% chance south of highway 40 during the early evening hours. For temps, highs on Tuesday on through Thursday will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Going into Friday, the region will see a range in the mid to some upper 90s in spots. Finally to start off next weekend, highs will range in the mid to upper 90s. Some isolated spots could reach the 100F mark. Overnight lows from Monday night through Wednesday night will have a range from the mid 50s west into the lower 60s east. Warmer conditions will ensue for the latter portion of the week with lower to mid 60s Thursday night, the 60s on Friday night and Saturday night. All of these evenings will have a trend with warmest temps in the eastern portion of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1051 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Confidence continues to increase for strong to severe thunderstorm to occur tonight through Sunday morning. The coverage of these storms is still not clear. The best chance seems to be close to 12z through 16z or so. The MVFR ceiling will mainly impact KGLD. As the lower ceilings move in, so will the storm potential. Winds will be rather erratic given the storm activity. Storm activity will end from west to east beginning around 18z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JTL