413
FXUS63 KGLD 191934
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
134 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
  and evening across the entire area. Numerous showers and
  thunderstorms will develop after 5 PM MDT and quickly move
  southeast. The primary hazard will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph,
  but there may also be a few instances of large hail as well
  as locally heavy rainfall.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures are forecast next
  week along with low chances of daily thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #555 is in effect through 900 PM
MDT/1000 PM CDT for the entire Tri State region. Currently
convection is developing/working through north portions of the
CWA around Highway 34, with reports of wind gusts already 60-70
mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Shortwave trough topping the ridge axis in the northern Rockies
tonight will move southeast today, reaching the area by late
this afternoon and evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
will develop, some severe, by around 23-00z, quickly moving
southeast this evening. Environment will be characterized by
30-40 kts of deep layer shear under the northwest flow and
MUCAPE peaking at around 1500 j/kg around 00z. Wind is expected
to be the main hazard as storms quickly cluster, though a few
instances of large hail will also be possible. 6-hour mean
QPF is around 1 to 1.5 inches centered in northwest Kansas, with
higher percentiles of up to 2 inches. So, some locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible. Storms will quickly move south
and out of the area no later than 06z tonight, with little to no
precipitation overnight. High temperatures this afternoon will
be in the low 90s and lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

An upper low will cut off over Iowa on Saturday, which is where
most of the precipitation will be. Further west, scattered
storms will develop near the Front Range where northwest flow
continues and there is a weak embedded disturbance. Some of that
activity may manage to makes its way into far northeast Colorado
and northwest Kansas by the late afternoon and evening. However,
instability is forecast to be quite limited, less than 500 j/kg,
and deep layer shear around 25 kts. Given those parameters,
severe storms are not expected. High temperatures will be in the
mid 80s and lows Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The upper low in Iowa will drift into eastern Nebraska on
Sunday, close enough to increase shower and thunderstorm chances
as early as Sunday morning and continuing through the rest of
the day. Instability and shear parameters remain weak and severe
storms are not anticipated. High temperatures will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and lows Sunday night in the 50s with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For next week, the pattern will largely be characterized by upper
ridging over the Western CONUS and troughing over the Great Lakes
region. The main variance in the pattern looks to come from a cut-
off low over the mid-west early in the week and then another
potential trough axis late in the week.

For Mon-Tue, highs are forecast to be in the 80`s as the cut-off low
is forecast to be over MO/IA. With this, the upper ridging is
forecast to keep more to the west, limiting how much warm air moves
into the area. Some cloud cover will also be likely with moisture
over the area and the presence of the upper feature. Ensemble
guidance shows little variation with the placement and timing, so
confidence is fairly high in this part of the forecast.

For Wed-Fri, the cut-off low is forecast to rejoin the flow. From
here, the questions become does another trough axis swing through
the Great Lakes region and bring a disturbance through and when does
the next trough from the northwest swing through. In the absence of
troughing, the ridging in the west should begin to influence more of
the area and bring warmer temperatures in the 90`s or low 100`s by
the end of the week. Otherwise, temperatures may remain more mild
than forecast in the 80`s or around 90. Precipitation chances would
also increase with the advancement of one of the troughs through the
area.

With conditions forecast to be fairly similar to this week and prior
weeks, precipitation chances through the period are forecast to be
around 10-30%. Storms would likely be isolated to scattered and
develop during the afternoon and evening hours with the continued
northwest flow. Again, the exception to this is towards the end of
the week if a trough axis can swing through from either the Great
Lakes region or the northwest. Severe weather will likely remain
isolated and marginal through much of the week unless a more
organized system can development (mainly end of the week).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions are expected for the forecast
period. Concerns for thunderstorm development later this
afternoon near the terminal. For now due to low confidence on
timing, have a tempo for VCTS from 00z-04z Saturday. Winds,
south-southeast around 15-25kts, becoming variable 20-30kts
from 00z-04z in anticipation of thunderstorms. From 04z onward,
higher gusts drop off to 10kts, with a veering of the flow from
southwest to north by the end of the period.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions are expected for the forecast
period. Concerns for thunderstorm development later this
afternoon near the terminal. For now due to low confidence on
timing, have a tempo for VCTS from 00z-03z Saturday. Winds,
south around 10-20kts, becoming variable 15-25kts from 00z-03z
in anticipation of thunderstorms. From 03z onward, higher gusts
drop off to 10kts, with a veering of the flow from southwest to
north by the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blowing Dust Advisory until 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for KSZ001-002-013.
CO...Blowing Dust Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ090-
     091.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...JN