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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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379 FXUS63 KGLD 192057 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 257 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect through the mid evening hours for the entire area. The primary hazard will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph, but there may also be a few instances of large hail as well as locally heavy rainfall. - Low chances of daily thunderstorms through Tuesday of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Severe Thunderstorm Watch #555 is in effect through 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT for the entire Tri State region. Currently convection is developing/working through north portions of the CWA around Highway 34, with reports of wind gusts already 60-70 mph. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Across the region this afternoon, skies mainly south of I-70 are currently sunny, but north of the Interstate there is a sky cover mix due to thunderstorms forming along a couple surface troughs, one along the CO/KS border and the other stretching eastward into southwest Nebraska. The main wx concerns for the short term period are going to focus on the strong to severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening, followed by some scattered chances this weekend. The latest RAP40 500 mb analysis continues to show a broad dome of high pressure over the western portion of the country. The latest mid level water vapor imagery is showing a shortwave moving along the eastern side of the ridge. This shortwave is interacting with the aforementioned surface troughs to trigger the current round of storms. Wind reports in the 60-70 mph range have already been reported since the severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. While the convection is occurring an hour or so earlier than the latest CAMs (NamNest/HRRR) were showing, they both still have this first line of storms followed by a second round with the shortwave around 00z Saturday. Most of the CWA remains under an Enhanced Risk for severe with a wind threat as the main hazard. Model soundings do show inverted-v profiles with fairly decent DCape around 1000- 1200j/kg and SBCape/MLCape around 1300-1700j/kg near the 00z timeframe. With PW values over an inch for most locations, locally heavy rainfall on top of wind potential up 70-75 mph, and some large hail are possible. This activity will push through the CWA by 04z- 05z tonight, with some lingering precip in the east going into Saturday morning. Going into this weekend, chances for rw/trw will persist(20-40% Saturday and 20-50% Sunday) with the focus over the western half of the CWA. This will be do in part to a couple shortwaves working through the area in tandem with a surface low/front moving south through eastern Colorado. Less instability this weekend than today, so not looking for severe chances at this time. For temps, it will cooler going into the weekend with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s giving way to upper 70s to the mid 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows tonight and Saturday night will range from the mid 50s west into the mid 60s east. By Sunday night, 50s area-wide with warmest locales east of Highway 25. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 217 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The latest extended guidance(GFS/ECMWF) continues to show an amplified 500mb ridge over the western portion of the country that will shift slowly eastward through the week. East of the CWA there is a mixed trough/cutoff low over the Iowa area. Circulation will end up northerly aloft as a result through the period. At the surface, high pressure east will make a push westward. Over the western CWA, there is a low/frontal boundary that moves slowly south along the CO/KS border Sunday-Tuesday. This boundary will be the focus for a 15-25% chance for rw/trw mainly for western portions of the area. A few weak shortwaves around the upper low will flow south and interact with the surface feature, enhancing precip potential. Despite the low chances for rainfall, 850mb temps peaking around +30c to +34c by Thursday-Friday, up from +21c to +25c on Monday is going to allow for a warming trend through the week. For temps, an upward trend will occur next week as highs on Monday will range mainly in the lower to mid 80s, upper 80s to mid 90s by midweek, then mid to upper 90s by next Friday. Overnight lows will see an upward trend as well w/ mid 50s west to around 60F east Monday night, giving way to 60s by Thursday and Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1020 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Concerns for thunderstorm development later this afternoon near the terminal. For now due to low confidence on timing, have a tempo for VCTS from 00z-04z Saturday. Winds, south-southeast around 15-25kts, becoming variable 20-30kts from 00z-04z in anticipation of thunderstorms. From 04z onward, higher gusts drop off to 10kts, with a veering of the flow from southwest to north by the end of the period. For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Concerns for thunderstorm development later this afternoon near the terminal. For now due to low confidence on timing, have a tempo for VCTS from 00z-03z Saturday. Winds, south around 10-20kts, becoming variable 15-25kts from 00z-03z in anticipation of thunderstorms. From 03z onward, higher gusts drop off to 10kts, with a veering of the flow from southwest to north by the end of the period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Blowing Dust Advisory until 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ this afternoon for KSZ001-002-013. CO...Blowing Dust Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ090- 091. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN