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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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785 FXUS63 KGLD 120036 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 636 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much above normal temperatures with highs in the 100s Friday through Monday. - A few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day through Saturday. Some gusty winds possible near stronger storms. - Precipitation chances increase next week with temperatures closer to normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 634 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Based on the latest CAMs(HRRR and NamNest), have adjusted the pops from 00z-12z Friday to show mostly isolated convection. There is convection trying at times along a boundary currently draped over eastern Colorado. The last storm that impacted Tribune, Kansas earlier showed a more sub-severe threat, with locally heavy rainfall potential. Ample DCape(1400-1700j/kg) is present should any one storm that does develop to provide a strong downburst, especially as it falls apart. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Temperatures will be the biggest concern through the weekend, though some isolated showers and thunderstorms will also be possible. High temperatures will reach the lower 100s tomorrow, low to middle 100s on Saturday and middle to upper 100s by Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s. It is possible that by Sunday may see Heat Advisory criteria of 105 heat index being met east of Highway 83. As for precipitation chances, will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop mainly in Colorado late this afternoon and evening, then watch for other isolated activity moving in from western Nebraska through the rest of the night. Severe storms are not expected, but some locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. That pattern repeats again for Friday afternoon and Friday night and possibly again on Saturday. The ridge finally nudges into the area on Sunday which is the only day the models are completely dry. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The extreme heat continues on Monday with another day of triple digit highs, then a cold front sags into the area Monday night and Tuesday providing at least a bit of relief. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s. NBM still insisting on precipitation chances Monday night, though latest runs of both the GFS and ECMWF are dry, so confidence is rather low. However, on Tuesday will see a shortwave come through in the northwest flow aloft as well as the frontal boundary lingering in the area. Temperatures remain above normal in the mid to upper 90s. Models are generating quite a bit of precipitation Tuesday night in the area and show very slow storm motions. It is still several days out but bears watching for the potential of both severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding. Front pushes south on Wednesday leaving the area in the post frontal upslope regime and temperatures closer to normal. Instability is pushed west into Colorado, but still appears anomalously moist in the low levels with troughing forecast in the northwest flow aloft. So, precipitation chances will continue. Northwest flow continues on Thursday, but does appear to be some drier air working into the lower levels. Instability will be limited to Colorado in the afternoon where convection should develop, then moving southeast with the mean wind into the evening hours, but weakening in the more stable airmass. High temperatures will be in the middle 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 353 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the forecast period. Isolated rw/trw could occur near the CO/KS border this afternoon/evening. Confidence on impacting KGLD is low so have left out mention at this time. Winds for KGLD, south-southeast around 10-20kts. Strongest gusts through 04z Friday and again from 20z onward. Winds for KMCK, southeast around 10kts through 06z Friday, then light/variable. By 14z, southeast 10-20kts, w/ strongest gusts from 18z onward. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 452 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 With forecasted high temperatures set to range from 100F to 105F area-wide from Friday, July the through Monday, July 25th there is the potential for some locales to come with a few degrees of the record highs for each day. Listed below are the records for each day: Friday Saturday Sunday Monday 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 ______________________________________________ Goodland KS 106F/1954 108F/1934 107F/1934 106F/1925 Burlington CO 106F/1954+ 103F/1934 105F/1925 103F/2000+ Hill City KS 113F/1939 115F/1934 113F/1934 113F/1934 McCook NE 110F/1939 108F/1954+ 109F/1934 112F/1925 Colby KS 106F/1995 111F/1934 109F/1934 108F/1925 Yuma CO 106F/1954 108F/1954 105F/2010 102F/2006+ Tribune KS 106F/2008 107F/1934 107F/1934 108F/2000 A (+) denotes a record in multiple years. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...JN CLIMATE...JN