762
FXUS63 KGLD 120413
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1013 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures with highs in the 100s Friday
  through Monday.

- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day
  through Saturday. Some gusty winds possible near stronger
  storms.

- Precipitation chances increase next week with temperatures
  closer to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Temperatures will be the biggest concern through the weekend,
though some isolated showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible. High temperatures will reach the lower 100s tomorrow,
low to middle 100s on Saturday and middle to upper 100s by
Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s. It is
possible that by Sunday may see Heat Advisory criteria of 105
heat index being met east of Highway 83. As for precipitation
chances, will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms
develop mainly in Colorado late this afternoon and evening, then
watch for other isolated activity moving in from western
Nebraska through the rest of the night. Severe storms are not
expected, but some locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled
out. That pattern repeats again for Friday afternoon and Friday
night and possibly again on Saturday. The ridge finally nudges
into the area on Sunday which is the only day the models are
completely dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The extreme heat continues on Monday with another day of triple
digit highs, then a cold front sags into the area Monday night
and Tuesday providing at least a bit of relief. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the mid to upper 90s. NBM still insisting on
precipitation chances Monday night, though latest runs of both
the GFS and ECMWF are dry, so confidence is rather low. However,
on Tuesday will see a shortwave come through in the northwest
flow aloft as well as the frontal boundary lingering in the
area. Temperatures remain above normal in the mid to upper 90s.
Models are generating quite a bit of precipitation Tuesday
night in the area and show very slow storm motions. It is still
several days out but bears watching for the potential of both
severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding. Front pushes south on
Wednesday leaving the area in the post frontal upslope regime
and temperatures closer to normal. Instability is pushed west
into Colorado, but still appears anomalously moist in the low
levels with troughing forecast in the northwest flow aloft. So,
precipitation chances will continue. Northwest flow continues on
Thursday, but does appear to be some drier air working into the
lower levels. Instability will be limited to Colorado in the
afternoon where convection should develop, then moving southeast
with the mean wind into the evening hours, but weakening in the
more stable airmass. High temperatures will be in the middle
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1013 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the
forecast period. Isolated rw/trw could occur near the CO/KS border
this evening. Confidence on impacting KGLD is low so have left
out mention at this time.

Winds for KGLD, south around 10kts through 19z Friday, then
southeast around 10-20kts.

Winds for KMCK, southeast around 10kts. Gusts up to 20kts from
18z Fri-02z Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 452 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With forecasted high temperatures set to range from 100F to 105F
area-wide from Friday, July 12th through Monday, July 15th
there is the potential for some locales to come with a few
degrees of the record highs for each day. Listed below are the
records for each day:

                   Friday    Saturday     Sunday      Monday

                    7/12        7/13       7/14        7/15
                 ______________________________________________

Goodland KS      106F/1954   108F/1934   107F/1934   106F/1925

Burlington CO    106F/1954+  103F/1934   105F/1925   103F/2000+

Hill City KS     113F/1939   115F/1934   113F/1934   113F/1934

McCook NE        110F/1939   108F/1954+  109F/1934   112F/1925

Colby KS         106F/1995   111F/1934   109F/1934   108F/1925

Yuma CO          106F/1954   108F/1954   105F/2010   102F/2006+

Tribune KS       106F/2008   107F/1934   107F/1934   108F/2000



A (+) denotes a record in multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JN