677
FXUS63 KGLD 120803
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures with highs in the 100s Friday
  through Monday.

- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day
  through Saturday. Some gusty winds possible near stronger
  storms.

- Precipitation chances increase next week with temperatures
  closer to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Temperatures will be the biggest concern through the weekend,
though some isolated showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible. High temperatures will reach the lower 100s tomorrow,
low to middle 100s on Saturday and middle to upper 100s by
Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s and 70s. It is
possible that by Sunday may see Heat Advisory criteria of 105
heat index being met east of Highway 83. As for precipitation
chances, will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms
develop mainly in Colorado late this afternoon and evening, then
watch for other isolated activity moving in from western
Nebraska through the rest of the night. Severe storms are not
expected, but some locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled
out. That pattern repeats again for Friday afternoon and Friday
night and possibly again on Saturday. The ridge finally nudges
into the area on Sunday which is the only day the models are
completely dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The long-term will see a transition as the blocking high pressure
system over the Rockies breaks down and allows shortwaves to move
off the Rockies. Monday, the high pressure will still dominate over
the region, but an upper-level inverted trough begins to push in
over Texas. This trough will force the high to retrograde closer to
the Great Basin, lessening the pressure over the CWA through the
middle of the workweek. Near the end of the workweek, guidance is
suggesting the ridge will work its way be over the High Plains.

Monday looks to be the last hot day in this stretch, warming to
above 100 degrees for most of the area. Heat indices will be near
air temperature and could briefly exceed 105F in the eastern CWA
Monday. Tuesday will be the start of a bit of a cooling trend.
Tuesday will still warm into the mid 90s to near 100, but by
Thursday, highs should be in the lower to mid 80s. Friday looks to
be the start of our next warming trend, increasing highs by about 5
degrees. Overnight temperatures will also have a cooling trend
throughout the period. Sunday night looks to stay in the mid 60s to
lower 70s, but by Thursday night, lows will be in the low 60s.

The hot and dry air will lower RH values into the mid to lower teens
Monday, with the Colorado counties being the driest. These dry
conditions do elevate fire weather concerns. We could see a brief
gust or two around 20-25 MPH, but the winds do not look to be overly
strong.

As the high pressure system is forced back west, our chances of
precipitation increase. Starting Monday afternoon, we could see
diurnal shortwaves ejecting off the Rockies and forcing showers and
storms over the Tri-State area. Tuesday evening looks to be the best
chance at seeing precipitation with PoPs around 50-60 for the entire
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1013 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the
forecast period. Isolated rw/trw could occur near the CO/KS border
this evening. Confidence on impacting KGLD is low so have left
out mention at this time.

Winds for KGLD, south around 10kts through 19z Friday, then
southeast around 10-20kts.

Winds for KMCK, southeast around 10kts. Gusts up to 20kts from
18z Fri-02z Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 452 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024

With forecasted high temperatures set to range from 100F to 105F
area-wide from Friday, July 12th through Monday, July 15th
there is the potential for some locales to come with a few
degrees of the record highs for each day. Listed below are the
records for each day:

                   Friday    Saturday     Sunday      Monday

                    7/12        7/13       7/14        7/15
                 ______________________________________________

Goodland KS      106F/1954   108F/1934   107F/1934   106F/1925

Burlington CO    106F/1954+  103F/1934   105F/1925   103F/2000+

Hill City KS     113F/1939   115F/1934   113F/1934   113F/1934

McCook NE        110F/1939   108F/1954+  109F/1934   112F/1925

Colby KS         106F/1995   111F/1934   109F/1934   108F/1925

Yuma CO          106F/1954   108F/1954   105F/2010   102F/2006+

Tribune KS       106F/2008   107F/1934   107F/1934   108F/2000



A (+) denotes a record in multiple years.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JN
CLIMATE...JN