748
FXUS63 KGLD 171808
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1208 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week with
  a risk for severe storms each day through Friday.

- Temperatures remaining near normal through next week.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible through Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1205 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

17Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA under
broad northwest flow with H5 ridge centered near the four
corners region with trough centered over the northeast CONUS. PV
analysis suggests at least 2 smaller disturbances moving over
top of ridge to the west. At the surface broad and light
easterly flow observed across area as surface ridge settles over
the area. With dewpoints in the low 60s, already seeing CU
fields develop, with storm initiation already occurring along
weak convergence zone near KLIC.

Primary short term concerns will focus on thunderstorm potential
each afternoon and evening through Friday.

As mentioned earlier, already seeing thunderstorm initiation on
subtle convergent zone along Palmer Divide and expect this to
continue on through the afternoon. While no major short wave
trough is apparent upstream, inhibition looks rather weak
allowing for several areas of thunderstorms to develop. The
first will likely be along convergent zone/south of Interstate
70 in eastern Colorado, with storms moving east southeast
through the afternoon hours. A second round of storms will
likely initiate over the higher terrain and merge into more of
an MCS in the evening hours. This will likely bring more
widespread storms as it moves east into Kansas. Have doubts
about how far east storms will make it as there is a rather
sharp gradient in available instability and have opted to be a
bit conservative on eastward progression. With instability
around 1000 J/KG and fairly straight hodographs expect a few
stronger storms early on, but think biggest threat will be
organized cold pools/ damaging wind gusts. High precipitable
water values, slow storm movement and high freezing levels
support a heavy rain threat as well, but best potential does not
seem to line up with where heavy rain has fallen recently.

On Thursday, sfc ridge retreats to the east as trough
strengthensover eastern Colorado. This will result in
increasing southerly winds as well as increasing temperatures.
While a similar upper level pattern will be in place during the
afternoon, H7 temperatures will be several degrees C warmer
than today resulting in stronger capping. Given the weak overall
forcing, confidence in thunderstorm development not as high as
today although threats will be similar to the last several days.
Pattern continues on Friday although afternoon forcing looks to
be stronger as weak cold front sweeps across the area. With
more focused forcing along front, looks like Friday evening may
be the best chance for rain across a large part of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The long term period remains favorable for nearly daily shower and
thunderstorm chances. Little has changed forecast wise with an upper
to mid level high sitting over the Great Basin while a trough moves
over the Eastern CONUS. Guidance is beginning to favor a 500-700 mb
cutoff low developing on Sunday along the Missouri River and
extending WSW towards the Tri-State area. This cutoff low and trough
will slide southeast slowly early next week. A surface high is
expected to develop over the Northern Plains while the upper ridge
noses over the Dakotas. This will help nudge the moisture over the
area until the ridge begins to expand into the area around Tuesday.
That said, the best chances for widespread showers and storms will
be over the weekend with up to 40% chances. PoPs decrease to up to
30% on Monday, with the best chances of 20-30% PoPs over East-
Central Colorado. Chances drop off to around 20% on Tuesday as the
upper ridge begins to expand over the area. With PWs ranging from
0.75-1.5" each day across the area, heavy rain is possible and
repeated days of storms moving over the same locations could lead to
some flooding concerns.

Temperatures will be comfortable for summer time highs throughout
the long term. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s with
overnight lows in the 50s to 60s Saturday night and in the 50s
Sunday night. So far Monday seems to be the coolest with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the 50s. Tuesday
will see highs return to the low to mid 80s across the area with
overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
continue through the evening. However, confidence in directly
impacting either terminal is low. Brief gusty winds may occur
near any thunderstorm.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JRM