600
FXUS63 KGLD 150850
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
250 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potentially damaging wind gusts this evening.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but far eastern
  Colorado Monday.

- Cooler (less hot) temperatures and a bit better chance for
  rainfall for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Tonight...isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are
anticipated to move from west to east through about 12 AM MDT (1
AM CDT), impacting those generally west of a line from near
McCook to Colby and Oakley. The primary hazard will be wind
gusts up to 65 mph. HRRR is showing a potential for heat bursts
after about 10 PM MDT as shower/thunderstorm activity
dissipates. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle
60s to middle 70s.

Monday-Monday night...we`ll have another chance for showers and
thunderstorms from late afternoon through the overnight hours as
a better organized weather system moves through from the
northwest. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 90s to around 107
with low temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Heat
indices as high as 107 are forecast (Norton/Graham counties).

Tuesday-Tuesday night...We`ll have a lull in precipitation
chances until late afternoon when another weather system moves
through from the west-northwest. Presently we have likely pops
(60%) for overnight thunderstorm chances. High temperatures
return closer to normal for early July with upper 80s to lower
90s forecast. Low temperatures also near normal in the upper 50s
to middle 60s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...lingering moisture in the 850-500mb
layer in the northwest flow aloft will continue to support daily
and overnight chances for rainfall. Presently we have 20%-70%
chances during the day with 20%-50% chances overnight. With
cooler temperatures aloft and quite a bit of cloud cover, high
temperatures look to be below normal with 80 to 85 degrees
forecast. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The long-term looks to be a fairly active period. A 500mb high
pressure system will be sitting over the Four Corners area with a
trough over the Great Lakes. This will put us under generally
northwesterly flow the period. There are some weak ridges and
troughs that will keep the flow "interesting." GEFS is showing a
trough moving south, over the Great Plains during the weekend that
may force the high to retrograde more into the Great Basin area.
This would also bring in a more northerly flow and give upper level
support for convection.

In the lower-levels, the flow has returned to a more typical setup
for the High Plains, versus the guidance from 24 hours ago. We look
to start with southerly 850mb flow, which will pull moisture from
the SE CONUS and bring it into the CWA. Friday night, the GFS, CMC-
NH, ECMWF, and GEFS are all showing a low moving across the Northern
Plains and extending a cold front down through the CWA. This front
would likely be the best forcing mechanism in the period and could
fire numerous storms. Due to how far out this event is, specific
hazards are difficult to pinpoint, however guidance is suggesting we
could have a high precipitation event. Some of the parameters
supporting this include PWATS ranging from 1.2-1.7 inches, low-
levels becoming easily saturated, a weak/moderately unstable column,
and moderate shear. It would also not be surprising if this system
shifts to Saturday night if the high pressure retrograde is slower
than predicted.

The aforementioned low-level low pressure system looks to move in a
southeastern direction, which supports cooler temperatures with wrap
around moisture and northerly flow. This would work to increase non-
severe precipitation chances over the remainder weekend, but there
are a few reasons why this precipitation may not occur. For example,
we could get dry, southwesterly flow returning near the surface
which would cause more virga than precipitation.

On the very positive side, temperatures will be cooler! It looks
like the high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower
90s, with the warmest day being Friday. Overall, low temperatures
are stable, cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
southerly wind up to 10kts is expected at taf issuance, veering
to the west at similar speeds through 12z. Winds continue to
veer to the north through the day Monday at speeds up to 11kts
or so. For Monday evening, winds remain generally from the north
around 11kts. Showers and thunderstorms could be near or over
the terminal after about 22z Monday with a bit better chance
after about 03z as the next weather system moves through. The
primary hazard would be strong gusty winds. Given overall
coverage and timing, I will not be including any mention in the
forecast at this time.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind is forecast from taf issuance through 14z.
From 15z-01z, west winds veer to the north then northeast,
gusting up to 20kts or so after 23z. After 02z, winds remain
from the northeast around 11kts. Regarding shower and
thunderstorm chances, presently the best chance for any to be
near or over the terminal is after about 03z. Similar to KGLD,
the primary hazard will be strong gusty winds. There wont be a
mention of thunderstorms in this taf forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Sunday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        105     2010
Burlington  105     1925
Goodland    107     1934
Tribune     107     1934
Colby       109     1934
McCook      109     1954
Hill City   113     1934


Monday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        102     2006
Burlington  103     2000
Goodland    106     1925
Tribune     108     2000
Colby       108     1925
McCook      112     1925
Hill City   113     1934

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...