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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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299 FXUS63 KGLD 151720 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1120 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for all but far eastern Colorado today from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT with heat indices up to 105 degrees. - Potentially damaging wind gusts and small hail this evening. - Cooler (less hot) temperatures and a bit better chance for rainfall for much of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 404 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Weak mid-level disturbances will expand the surface trough east across the Central Plains today while the upper high remains over the Four Corners and over the Central and Southern High Plains. A cold front will move south across the area from Nebraska beginning around Noon MDT. This front does not seem to be very strong and may create a brief wind shift as it moves through. One thing it may do is help prime the atmosphere for storm development this afternoon over Northwest Kansas ahead of the main round that will develop over Eastern Colorado. The main window for storms to develop and/or enter the western portions of the area is from 2 PM to 5 PM MDT with storm coverage likely increasing into linear clusters as they move east. Storms are currently expected to exit the eastern portions of the area between Midnight and 6 AM Tuesday morning. Instability and shear do look to be a bit better for storms today compared to the what we had over the weekend. CAM soundings are consistent with inverted-v soundings, indicating more of a wind threat with gusts up to 60-70 mph possible. Small hail and heavy rain are also possible. Localized blowing dust may occur over dry fields with visibility reductions down to a few miles. With cloud cover expected to increase from west to east this afternoon with the storm development, it will be slightly cooler with highs ranging from 97 to 107 degrees. Heat Index values could be in the lower 90s to around 105 degrees with the warmer values east of the Colorado border. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for those east of the Colorado border from 9 AM MDT/10 AM CDT to 8 PM MDT/9 PM CDT today. On Tuesday an upper trough extending over the Plains from south of the Hudson Bay in Canada and will flatten the upper ridge over the Central Plains. Another cold front will sweep across the area during the day with a stream of moisture trying to advect in from the Atlantic and NE Canada. This will provide another chance for showers and storms to impact the entire area and continue through Thursday morning. SPC has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for tomorrow as large clusters of storms that could evolve into a more organized line as it moves across extreme SW Nebraska and Northwest Kansas during the evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns; however, the hail threat will decrease as we move in the evening and evolve into a line. Heavy rain is also a concern with PWs favorable for flash flooding should storms begin to train over the same area. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Wednesday the upper trough will push further south and amplify the ridge over the Western CONUS placing the Tri-State area under NW flow aloft. Some monsoonal moisture will interact with the moisture stemming from the Atlantic to keep the rain and storm chances (up to 60%) continuing through the overnight hours. SPC has placed those along and west of a Trenton to Leoti line into a Marginal Risk for strong to damaging wind gusts associated with isolated to scattered storms. High temperatures will be even cooler thanks to the cloud cover with temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 250 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The long-term looks to be a fairly active period. A 500mb high pressure system will be sitting over the Four Corners area with a trough over the Great Lakes. This will put us under generally northwesterly flow the period. There are some weak ridges and troughs that will keep the flow "interesting." GEFS is showing a trough moving south, over the Great Plains during the weekend that may force the high to retrograde more into the Great Basin area. This would also bring in a more northerly flow and give upper level support for convection. In the lower-levels, the flow has returned to a more typical setup for the High Plains, versus the guidance from 24 hours ago. We look to start with southerly 850mb flow, which will pull moisture from the SE CONUS and bring it into the CWA. Friday night, the GFS, CMC- NH, ECMWF, and GEFS are all showing a low moving across the Northern Plains and extending a cold front down through the CWA. This front would likely be the best forcing mechanism in the period and could fire numerous storms. Due to how far out this event is, specific hazards are difficult to pinpoint, however guidance is suggesting we could have a high precipitation event. Some of the parameters supporting this include PWATS ranging from 1.2-1.7 inches, low- levels becoming easily saturated, a weak/moderately unstable column, and moderate shear. It would also not be surprising if this system shifts to Saturday night if the high pressure retrograde is slower than predicted. The aforementioned low-level low pressure system looks to move in a southeastern direction, which supports cooler temperatures with wrap around moisture and northerly flow. This would work to increase non- severe precipitation chances over the remainder weekend, but there are a few reasons why this precipitation may not occur. For example, we could get dry, southwesterly flow returning near the surface which would cause more virga than precipitation. On the very positive side, temperatures will be cooler! It looks like the high temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 90s, with the warmest day being Friday. Overall, low temperatures are stable, cooling into the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and move through the area tonight. Some storms may produce gusty surface winds. However, uncertainty on coverage precludes mentioning in the TAFs at this time. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday high temperature records Record Year Yuma 102 2006 Burlington 103 2000 Goodland 106 1925 Tribune 108 2000 Colby 108 1925 McCook 112 1925 Hill City 113 1934 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...024 CLIMATE...JTL