280
FXUS63 KGLD 152300
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect for all but far eastern Colorado 8 PM
  MDT tonight with heat indices up to 105 degrees.

- Potentially damaging wind gusts this evening with
  thunderstorms.

- Severe chances again on Tuesday with wind the primary hazard,
  but also a few instances of marginally severe hail possible.

- Temperatures closer to normal beginning tomorrow and
  continuing through next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A pattern changes is underway as the upper ridge that has been
responsible for the extreme heat moves back to the western CONUS
and northwest flow aloft develops over the central plains. This
will result in temperatures closer to normal beginning on
Tuesday as well as better chances for showers and thunderstorms
beginning tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop in eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening and
move into northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska tonight.
Other more scattered activity may develop south on Interstate 70
near a surface trough this afternoon. Main hazard with any of
these storms will be strong to possibly severe wind gusts of
greater than 60 mph. Similar to last night, some blowing dust
will also be possible. Storm chances will gradually end
overnight as they move east and out of the area. Lows will be in
the 60s.

Tuesday will start mostly sunny then scattered thunderstorms
developing towards mid to late afternoon. Highs will be in the
lower 90s. There will be a shortwave trough coming down in the
northwest flow as well as low level convergence along the
accompanying surface feature. Instability is somewhat limited in
western areas, less than 1000 j/kg, but there is some modest
increase further east. Deep layer shear will be 30-40 kts,
highest in southern areas. So expect to see slight to marginal
severe chances, with wind the primary hazard but perhaps some
marginally severe hail with the increase in instability and
shear further south and east. Models fairly robust with the
precipitation chances, first in Colorado then diving southeast
into areas south of Interstate 70 in the evening. HREF 6-hour
QPF between 00z-06z is generally between a quarter and a half
inch. HREF shows low probabilities, less than 10%, of greater
than one inch in parts of northwest Kansas between 00-06z
Tuesday evening. Precipitation gradually ends after midnight
with lows in the lower 60s.

Wednesday will see post frontal easterly winds much of the day,
becoming southeast in the afternoon, with cooler temperatures
and highs in the lower 80s. Another disturbance in the northwest
flow will result in scattered thunderstorms in Colorado by the
afternoon which will move southeast with the mean wind Wednesday
night. Given that storm motion best chances for precipitation
will be west of Highway 25, with only slight chances further
east. Deep layer shear is good in the northwest flow, but
instability not particularly impressive and generally limited
to Colorado, suggesting a marginal severe risk there at best.
QPF is generally less than a tenth of an inch, with some spotty
amounts in Colorado up to a quarter of an inch. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Not much changes for Thursday. Northwest flow continues but
there are only hints of a slight perturbation in the models.
Shear continues to be high and instability is better,
particularly in western areas. However, given the relative lack
of forcing coverage for afternoon and evening storms will be
relatively low. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm or two
given the environmental parameters. Highs will be in the mid
80s and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Pattern does not change much for the long term period. The ridge
settles into the Great Basin with troughing over the Great Lakes
and New England. Northwest flow continues between those two main
features in the Plains, but does weaken by the weekend. This
does impact the deep layer shear, which is still fairly strong
on Friday, but less than 20 kts by Saturday and Sunday. So while
precipitation chances continue each day through the long term
period associated with disturbances in the northwest flow,
thinking severe risk should begin to decrease, especially over
the weekend. Friday will be the warmest day of the period, with
highs in the lower 90s, then cooling off again over the weekend
with highs in the 80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Northeasterly winds gusting up to 20kts are anticipated through
01z. From 02z-03z, there is a chance for high based
thunderstorms to potentially impact the terminal. The primary
hazard includes wind gusts that could exceed 50kts. There is
also a possibility via local research of blowing dust and
reduced visibilities impacting the terminal. After 04z, winds
generally from the northeast under 10kts, possibly from the
northwest from 10z-20z. NAM model showing a potential for sub
VFR cigs due to stratus around 12z. Will watch model trends for
possible inclusion in later forecasts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northeasterly wind gusting to 20kts will continue through 01z
before settling below 12kts through 03z. From 03z-05z, there is
a chance for high based thunderstorms to potentially impact the
terminal. The primary hazard will be wind gusts that could
exceed 50kts. After 05z, winds generally light and variable with
periods of northwest to easterly directions at speeds around
7kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday high temperature records
            Record  Year

Yuma        102     2006
Burlington  103     2000
Goodland    106     1925
Tribune     108     2000
Colby       108     1925
McCook      112     1925
Hill City   113     1934

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...