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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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339 FXUS63 KGLD 161936 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 136 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe chances during the late afternoon to overnight hours with wind the primary hazard, but also a few instances of marginally severe hail and flash flooding possible. - Temperatures closer to normal beginning tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 434 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 On Tuesday an upper trough extending over the Plains from south of the Hudson Bay in Canada and will flatten the upper ridge over the Central Plains giving us more of a zonal flow aloft. Moisture will continue trying to advect in from the Atlantic and NE Canada again today while weak shortwaves move over the Rockies and Central High Plains. This will provide another chance for showers and storms to impact the entire area and continue through Thursday morning. SPC has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for today as large clusters could develop over East-Central Colorado and Northwest Kansas during the late afternoon/early evening to overnight hours. A big question is whether or not the upper level divergence can help provide some lift so that whatever develops can interact with the 500-2000 J/kg of CAPE over the area. Shear is also slightly better today to promote more organized storms. The NAMnest seems to be more of the high end/"worst case" as it has more isolated to scattered convection developing out of Southern Nebraska into Northwest Kansas during the late afternoon followed by a widespread cluster of storms moving into the area from East-Central Colorado and impacting those generally south of the Nebraska border. Over the last few nights, the 06Z run of the HRRR has seemed to handle the convection fairly well, so we are trending more towards it today. The 06Z HRRR is also the "best case" as we have limited convection over the area around 00Z with majority of the strong to severe storms occurring just outside of our southern CWA border. Inverted-v soundings seen in CAMs along and south of I-70 indicate damaging wind gusts and large hail up to the size of quarters are the primary concerns; however, the hail threat will decrease as we move in the evening and evolve into more of a linear cluster. Heavy rain is also a concern with PWs greater than 1" favorable for flash flooding should storms begin to train over the same area or move slowly given the 15-20 kt storm motions. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. On Wednesday the upper trough will push further south and amplify the ridge over the Western CONUS placing the Tri-State area under NW flow aloft. Some monsoonal moisture will interact with the moisture stemming from the Atlantic to keep the rain and storm chances (up to 45%) continuing through the overnight hours where chances decrease to around 15-20% over the central columns of counties. SPC has placed those along and west of a Trenton to Leoti line into a Marginal Risk for strong to damaging wind gusts associated with isolated to scattered storms. High temperatures will be even cooler thanks to the cloud cover with temperatures forecast to reach the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Looking at the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF, both models do carry an amplified 500 mb ridge over the western portion of the country. A trough swings through the northern/central Plains during this time. Models do differ as to the system forming a meandering cutoff low or staying as a trough. From previous runs it does look like consensus for a cutoff low forming in the 500/700 mb range, meandering slowly over the central Plains. At the surface, a front will settle south of the CWA going into Saturday, as a strong ridge works into the northern Plains. The placement of the ridge will play a key role in amount/chances(20- 40%) for rw/trw potential each day. Areal coverage spans the CWA but does trend westward due to the surface ridge building south into the CWA by the beginning of next week. The result of this will have storms chances peaking late in the weekend into next Monday, before shifting towards the west. The caveat for the extended forecast will be the potential for heavy rainfall. PW values will range from 1-1.5" w/ best numbers in the east as surface winds shift easterly late in the period. For temps, looking for highs to start off the upcoming weekend to range in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday, giving way to slightly cooler numbers on Sunday with upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Going into next week, conditions begin an upward trend with mainly lower 80s Monday, mid to upper 80s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will range mainly in the mid to upper 50s this weekend. A few spots east of Highway 83 will reach the 60F mark. Next week, a similar setup to this weekend with mid and upper 50s Monday night, then a range from west to east Tuesday night from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Warmest along/east of Highway 25. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 952 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For KGLD, expecting mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. VCTS possible from 00z-06z Wednesday. Winds will be 10kts or less through the forecast, but veering from the north initially to the southeast by 02z Wednesday, southwest by 06z then back to southeast from 13z onward. For KMCK, expecting mainly VFR conditions through the forecast period. VCTS possible from 00z-03z Wednesday. Winds, north- northwest around 10kts through 03z Wednesday, then northeast. By 05z, veering southwest, then becoming southeast from 09z onward. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KMK LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JN