Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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060
UXUS97 KGJT 061307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
707 AM MDT Saturday, July 6, 2024

This forecast is for Saturday, July 6, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 81.2 F/27.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1152 ft/min (5.9 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 18043 ft MSL (13204 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 95.0 F/35.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 15813 ft MSL (10974 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 07/07....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:55:04 / 20:43:03 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 47 min 59 sec (887 min 59 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:19:04 MDT... 72.97 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/06/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15103 ft MSL (10264 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 22141 ft MSL (17302 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 20841 ft MSL (16002 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +2.0
K index......................... +7.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -59.9 -75.8   305   41   21   5.4   3.0   95.0 202.9    34.7      M    M
 45000  -58.1 -72.6   300   51   26   6.4   3.5   72.3 162.1    23.2      M    M
 40000  -49.6 -57.3   310   47   24   4.7   2.6   62.9 145.2    18.6      M    M
 38000  -46.8 -52.2   315   45   23   4.6   2.5   58.3 137.0    15.9      M    M
 36000  -43.9 -47.0   310   44   23   5.3   2.9   54.0 129.2    13.3      M    M
 34000  -41.0 -41.8   320   41   21   4.8   2.6   49.9 121.8    10.7      M    M
 32000  -36.8 -34.2   310   39   20   8.6   4.7   46.5 115.8     8.5      M    M
 30000  -32.1 -25.8   320   33   17   7.5   4.1   45.0 113.1     7.6      M    M
 29000  -29.7 -21.5   325   32   16   8.0   4.4   44.3 111.7     7.1      M    M
 28000  -27.3 -17.1   330   35   18   8.0   4.4   43.6 110.5     6.7      M    M
 27000  -25.3 -13.5   325   29   15   6.4   3.5   42.4 108.4     5.8      M    M
 26000  -23.4 -10.1   325   30   15   7.6   4.2   41.2 106.1     4.9      M    M
 25000  -20.9  -5.6   330   33   17   8.7   4.8   40.7 105.2     4.5      M    M
 24000  -18.2  -0.8   335   33   17   9.0   4.9   40.4 104.7     4.4      M    M
 23000  -15.6   3.9   320   29   15   8.4   4.6   40.0 104.0     4.1      M    M
 22000  -13.1   8.4   325   30   16   8.4   4.6   39.5 103.2     3.8      M    M
 21000  -10.6  12.9   320   29   15   8.5   4.7   39.1 102.3     3.4      M    M
 20000   -8.6  16.5   315   26   14   0.1   0.1   37.9 100.2     2.4      M    M
 19500   -8.0  17.6   305   29   15   5.9   3.3   36.8  98.3     1.5      M    M
 19000   -7.0  19.4   310   29   15   7.2   3.9   36.4  97.5     1.2      M    M
 18500   -6.0  21.2   305   27   14   6.2   3.4   35.8  96.4     0.6      M    M
 18000   -4.7  23.5   300   25   13   6.1   3.4   34.8  94.7    -0.2   1138  5.8
 17500   -3.8  25.2   295   23   12   6.1   3.3   34.2  93.5    -0.7   1096  5.6
 17000   -2.9  26.8   285   22   11   6.1   3.3   33.6  92.4    -1.3   1054  5.4
 16500   -2.4  27.7   270   19   10   3.9   2.2   32.5  90.5    -2.3   1025  5.2
 16000   -1.5  29.3   260   18    9   6.3   3.5   32.0  89.5    -2.9    983  5.0
 15500   -0.6  30.9   260   16    8   6.7   3.7   31.4  88.6    -3.5    941  4.8
 15000    0.3  32.5   255   13    7   7.1   3.9   30.9  87.7    -4.0    899  4.6
 14500    1.5  34.7   260   12    6   8.5   4.7   30.6  87.2    -4.4    850  4.3
 14000    2.7  36.9   265   10    5   8.5   4.6   30.5  86.8    -4.6    797  4.1
 13500    4.0  39.2   265   10    5   8.5   4.6   30.3  86.5    -4.8    745  3.8
 13000    5.3  41.5   270   10    5   8.5   4.6   30.1  86.1    -5.0    692  3.5
 12500    6.5  43.7   270    9    5   8.5   4.6   29.9  85.7    -5.2    640  3.2
 12000    7.8  46.0   250    7    4   8.5   4.6   29.6  85.4    -5.4    587  3.0
 11500    9.0  48.2   245    6    3   8.4   4.6   29.4  85.0    -5.7    535  2.7
 11000   10.3  50.5   245    2    1   8.4   4.6   29.2  84.6    -5.9    482  2.4
 10500   11.6  52.9   105    5    2   7.3   4.0   29.0  84.1    -6.2    429  2.2
 10250   12.0  53.6   090    6    3   5.1   2.8   28.7  83.6    -6.5    409  2.1
 10000   12.4  54.3   070    7    4   7.2   3.9   28.3  83.0    -6.8    389  2.0
  9750   13.0  55.4   065    6    3   8.7   4.8   28.2  82.8    -6.9    363  1.8
  9500   13.7  56.7   070    6    3   8.3   4.5   28.1  82.7    -7.0    337  1.7
  9250   14.3  57.7   080    5    3   8.4   4.6   28.0  82.5    -7.2    311  1.6
  9000   14.9  58.8   080    8    4   8.4   4.6   27.9  82.3    -7.3    285  1.4
  8750   15.5  59.9   075    7    4   8.4   4.6   27.8  82.1    -7.4    259  1.3
  8500   16.2  61.2   070    6    3   8.4   4.6   27.7  81.9    -7.5    232  1.2
  8250   16.8  62.2   055    5    2   8.4   4.6   27.6  81.7    -7.7    206  1.0
  8000   17.4  63.3   045    4    2   8.4   4.6   27.5  81.5    -7.8    180  0.9
  7750   18.0  64.4   060    4    2   8.4   4.6   27.4  81.3    -7.9    154  0.8
  7500   18.6  65.5   070    4    2   8.4   4.6   27.3  81.1    -8.0    128  0.7
  7250   19.3  66.7   080    4    2   8.1   4.4   27.2  80.9    -8.2    102  0.5
  7000   19.9  67.8   075    4    2   9.4   5.2   27.1  80.7    -8.3     76  0.4
  6750   20.5  68.9   090    5    3   4.0   2.2   26.9  80.5    -8.5     51  0.3
  6500   20.4  68.7   100    8    4  -2.7  -1.5   26.1  79.1    -9.3     45  0.2
  6250   20.2  68.4   095    9    4  -3.2  -1.8   25.2  77.4   -10.2     44  0.2
  6000   20.0  68.0   095    9    5  -0.4  -0.2   24.3  75.7   -11.2     42  0.2
  5750   20.2  68.4   110   10    5   3.5   1.9   23.7  74.6   -11.8     31  0.2
  5500   20.4  68.7   125   12    6   2.8   1.6   23.2  73.7   -12.4     18  0.1
  5250   20.4  68.7   130   15    7  -1.5  -0.8   22.5  72.6   -13.1      9  0.0
  5000   19.8  67.6   120   16    8 -15.6  -8.6   21.2  70.2   -14.5     20  0.1

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           07/06/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       07/06/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +7.2        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +5.9
CINH...    -0.1    K Index...  -8.0        | CINH...     0.0    K Index...  -2.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -59.9 -75.8  305  36 18   1.3   0.7 | -59.8 -75.6  300  35 18   1.9   1.1
 45000 -56.4 -69.5  305  52 27   4.1   2.3 | -56.1 -69.0  305  55 28   3.3   1.8
 40000 -50.2 -58.4  315  56 29   4.0   2.2 | -51.0 -59.8  310  63 32   4.1   2.2
 38000 -47.8 -54.0  320  55 28   4.0   2.2 | -48.5 -55.3  315  59 30   4.1   2.3
 36000 -45.4 -49.7  325  55 28   3.8   2.1 | -46.0 -50.8  315  56 29   4.0   2.2
 34000 -41.7 -43.1  325  50 26   6.7   3.6 | -42.2 -44.0  315  50 26   6.9   3.8
 32000 -37.7 -35.9  325  44 23   6.6   3.6 | -38.0 -36.4  320  45 23   6.9   3.8
 30000 -33.2 -27.8  325  41 21   7.8   4.3 | -33.3 -27.9  315  41 21   8.3   4.5
 29000 -30.8 -23.4  320  40 21   7.8   4.3 | -30.8 -23.4  315  40 21   8.3   4.5
 28000 -28.5 -19.3  320  39 20   8.0   4.4 | -28.3 -18.9  310  38 20   8.3   4.6
 27000 -25.3 -13.5  320  38 19   8.6   4.7 | -25.1 -13.2  310  38 19   8.5   4.7
 26000 -22.7  -8.9  315  37 19   8.6   4.7 | -22.6  -8.7  310  37 19   8.5   4.7
 25000 -20.1  -4.2  315  36 18   8.4   4.6 | -20.0  -4.0  310  36 19   8.4   4.6
 24000 -17.7   0.1  310  34 17   8.1   4.5 | -17.6   0.3  315  35 18   8.2   4.5
 23000 -15.2   4.6  310  32 16   8.1   4.5 | -15.1   4.8  315  35 18   8.2   4.5
 22000 -12.8   9.0  305  30 15   7.8   4.3 | -12.7   9.1  315  34 18   7.4   4.1
 21000 -10.6  12.9  305  28 15   7.3   4.0 | -10.7  12.7  315  32 17   6.5   3.6
 20000  -8.4  16.9  305  27 14   7.3   4.0 |  -8.7  16.3  315  30 16   6.5   3.6
 19500  -7.3  18.9  305  26 14   7.4   4.1 |  -7.8  18.0  315  29 15   6.5   3.6
 19000  -6.2  20.8  305  26 13   6.2   3.4 |  -6.9  19.6  315  28 15   5.6   3.1
 18500  -5.3  22.5  305  25 13   6.3   3.4 |  -6.0  21.2  315  27 14   5.7   3.1
 18000  -4.4  24.1  305  24 13   6.0   3.3 |  -5.2  22.6  310  26 13   5.8   3.2
 17500  -3.5  25.7  305  23 12   5.8   3.2 |  -4.3  24.3  310  25 13   5.9   3.2
 17000  -2.6  27.3  305  22 11   5.8   3.2 |  -3.4  25.9  310  24 12   5.9   3.2
 16500  -1.9  28.6  305  21 11   4.8   2.6 |  -2.6  27.3  310  22 12   6.1   3.4
 16000  -1.1  30.0  305  19 10   4.9   2.7 |  -1.7  28.9  310  21 11   6.1   3.4
 15500  -0.4  31.3  300  18  9   5.2   2.9 |  -0.8  30.6  305  20 10   6.0   3.3
 15000   0.4  32.7  300  16  8   5.4   3.0 |   0.1  32.2  305  18 10   6.0   3.3
 14500   1.2  34.2  300  14  7   5.9   3.3 |   0.9  33.6  305  17  9   6.4   3.5
 14000   2.1  35.8  295  13  7   6.6   3.6 |   1.9  35.4  300  16  8   6.9   3.8
 13500   3.0  37.4  290  12  6   7.0   3.8 |   2.9  37.2  300  15  7   7.3   4.0
 13000   4.1  39.4  290  10  5   8.0   4.4 |   4.1  39.4  300  14  7   8.5   4.6
 12500   5.3  41.5  285   9  5   8.0   4.4 |   5.4  41.7  295  13  7   8.5   4.6
 12000   6.5  43.7  285   8  4   8.1   4.4 |   6.6  43.9  295  12  6   8.9   4.9
 11500   7.7  45.9  290   6  3   8.1   4.4 |   7.9  46.2  295  11  6   8.9   4.9
 11000   8.9  48.0  300   5  3   8.3   4.6 |   9.3  48.7  295  10  5   9.0   4.9
 10500  10.1  50.2  310   4  2   7.4   4.1 |  10.6  51.1  290  10  5   6.1   3.3
 10250  10.6  51.1  320   4  2   6.3   3.5 |  11.0  51.8  295   9  5   6.9   3.8
 10000  11.1  52.0  330   3  2   8.3   4.6 |  11.8  53.2  290   9  5  11.5   6.3
  9750  11.8  53.2  335   3  2   9.4   5.2 |  12.6  54.7  290   9  4  10.3   5.7
  9500  12.5  54.5  335   3  2   9.0   4.9 |  13.3  55.9  290   8  4  10.4   5.7
  9250  13.1  55.6  340   3  2   7.8   4.3 |  14.1  57.4  290   8  4   8.8   4.9
  9000  14.2  57.6  350   3  1   7.9   4.4 |  14.7  58.5  290   8  4   9.1   5.0
  8750  14.8  58.6  345   2  1   7.2   4.0 |  16.2  61.2  285   7  4   9.5   5.2
  8500  15.3  59.5  345   2  1   5.3   2.9 |  16.8  62.2  285   7  4   6.9   3.8
  8250  15.6  60.1  345   2  1   5.2   2.9 |  17.3  63.1  285   7  4   8.3   4.6
  8000  16.1  61.0  340   1  1   7.2   3.9 |  18.1  64.6  285   7  3  12.0   6.6
  7750  16.6  61.9  330   1  1   5.7   3.2 |  19.0  66.2  280   6  3  10.2   5.6
  7500  16.9  62.4  325   1  0   3.3   1.8 |  19.6  67.3  285   6  3   7.5   4.1
  7250  17.2  63.0  000   0  0   3.8   2.1 |  20.2  68.4  285   6  3   8.3   4.6
  7000  17.6  63.7  000   0  0   8.4   4.6 |  20.9  69.6  285   6  3  12.5   6.9
  6750  18.3  64.9  000   0  0   8.5   4.7 |  21.9  71.4  280   6  3  12.0   6.6
  6500  18.8  65.8  135   1  0   6.0   3.3 |  22.7  72.9  280   6  3  10.0   5.5
  6250  19.2  66.6  130   1  0   5.9   3.2 |  23.5  74.3  280   6  3   9.4   5.1
  6000  19.7  67.5  130   1  1  10.4   5.7 |  24.2  75.6  280   5  3  13.7   7.5
  5750  20.9  69.6  135   1  1  21.2  11.6 |  25.7  78.3  280   5  3  28.2  15.5
  5500  22.2  72.0  135   1  1   3.9   2.2 |  27.9  82.2  285   5  3  21.5  11.8
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           07/06/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       07/06/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +4.1        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +1.0
CINH...    -0.2    K Index...  +5.3        | CINH...    -0.0    K Index...  +8.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.1 -76.2  300  36 19   2.4   1.3 | -59.6 -75.3  295  38 20   2.1   1.1
 45000 -56.1 -69.0  305  55 28   2.9   1.6 | -55.9 -68.6  305  54 28   3.0   1.6
 40000 -51.5 -60.7  305  61 31   4.6   2.5 | -51.2 -60.2  305  61 31   4.5   2.5
 38000 -48.7 -55.7  310  58 30   4.7   2.6 | -48.4 -55.1  310  60 31   4.6   2.5
 36000 -45.8 -50.4  310  56 29   4.6   2.5 | -45.7 -50.3  310  60 31   4.5   2.5
 34000 -42.2 -44.0  315  54 28   6.4   3.5 | -42.0 -43.6  315  59 30   6.5   3.6
 32000 -38.3 -36.9  320  52 27   6.4   3.5 | -38.0 -36.4  315  57 30   6.5   3.5
 30000 -33.5 -28.3  320  49 25   8.4   4.6 | -33.5 -28.3  315  55 28   8.0   4.4
 29000 -31.0 -23.8  325  48 25   8.4   4.6 | -31.0 -23.8  315  53 28   8.0   4.4
 28000 -28.5 -19.3  325  46 24   8.5   4.7 | -28.6 -19.5  315  52 27   8.1   4.5
 27000 -25.2 -13.4  320  43 22   8.7   4.8 | -25.5 -13.9  315  49 25   8.2   4.5
 26000 -22.6  -8.7  320  41 21   8.7   4.8 | -23.0  -9.4  315  47 24   8.3   4.5
 25000 -20.0  -4.0  320  40 20   8.4   4.6 | -20.6  -5.1  320  45 23   7.9   4.3
 24000 -17.6   0.3  320  40 20   8.0   4.4 | -18.4  -1.1  315  44 22   7.1   3.9
 23000 -15.2   4.6  315  40 21   8.0   4.4 | -16.3   2.7  315  42 22   7.1   3.9
 22000 -12.8   9.0  315  40 21   7.2   3.9 | -14.2   6.4  315  40 21   6.9   3.8
 21000 -10.9  12.4  320  39 20   6.5   3.6 | -12.2  10.0  310  37 19   6.7   3.7
 20000  -8.9  16.0  320  38 20   6.5   3.5 | -10.2  13.6  310  34 18   6.7   3.7
 19500  -8.0  17.6  320  37 19   6.5   3.5 |  -9.3  15.3  310  33 17   6.8   3.7
 19000  -7.1  19.2  320  36 19   5.4   3.0 |  -8.2  17.2  305  31 16   8.1   4.5
 18500  -6.3  20.7  320  34 17   5.5   3.0 |  -7.0  19.4  305  30 16   8.0   4.4
 18000  -5.5  22.1  320  32 16   5.9   3.3 |  -5.7  21.7  305  29 15   8.7   4.7
 17500  -4.6  23.7  320  29 15   6.2   3.4 |  -4.4  24.1  305  28 14   9.0   4.9
 17000  -3.7  25.3  320  27 14   6.3   3.5 |  -3.1  26.4  300  27 14   9.0   5.0
 16500  -2.6  27.3  315  25 13   7.7   4.2 |  -1.7  28.9  300  26 14   9.2   5.1
 16000  -1.5  29.3  315  23 12   7.6   4.2 |  -0.4  31.3  300  25 13   9.2   5.0
 15500  -0.4  31.3  310  22 11   8.2   4.5 |   1.0  33.8  300  24 12   9.4   5.2
 15000   0.9  33.6  310  21 11   8.3   4.6 |   2.4  36.3  295  23 12   9.4   5.2
 14500   2.1  35.8  305  19 10   8.7   4.8 |   3.8  38.8  295  22 11   9.4   5.2
 14000   3.4  38.1  305  19 10   9.0   4.9 |   5.2  41.4  295  21 11   9.4   5.2
 13500   4.7  40.5  300  18  9   9.1   5.0 |   6.6  43.9  290  20 11   9.4   5.2
 13000   6.1  43.0  300  17  9   9.2   5.0 |   8.0  46.4  290  20 10   9.5   5.2
 12500   7.4  45.3  295  17  9   9.2   5.0 |   9.4  48.9  290  19 10   9.5   5.2
 12000   8.8  47.8  295  16  8   9.3   5.1 |  10.9  51.6  285  18  9   9.6   5.3
 11500  10.2  50.4  290  16  8   9.3   5.1 |  12.3  54.1  285  18  9   9.7   5.3
 11000  11.5  52.7  290  15  8   8.4   4.6 |  13.6  56.5  280  17  9   7.9   4.3
 10500  12.7  54.9  285  14  7  11.3   6.2 |  14.7  58.5  275  16  8  11.5   6.3
 10250  13.7  56.7  285  14  7  11.9   6.5 |  15.8  60.4  275  16  8  12.6   6.9
 10000  14.4  57.9  280  14  7   8.6   4.7 |  16.5  61.7  275  16  8   8.6   4.7
  9750  15.1  59.2  280  13  7   9.5   5.2 |  17.2  63.0  275  16  8   9.7   5.3
  9500  15.8  60.4  280  13  7   9.2   5.0 |  17.9  64.2  275  15  8   9.4   5.2
  9250  16.5  61.7  280  13  6   9.1   5.0 |  19.2  66.6  270  14  7   9.0   5.0
  9000  17.9  64.2  275  12  6  10.0   5.5 |  20.0  68.0  270  14  7  10.0   5.5
  8750  18.7  65.7  275  12  6   9.7   5.3 |  20.7  69.3  270  14  7   9.8   5.4
  8500  19.3  66.7  275  11  6   7.8   4.3 |  21.4  70.5  270  13  7   8.7   4.8
  8250  19.9  67.8  275  11  6   9.2   5.0 |  22.1  71.8  265  13  7   9.1   5.0
  8000  20.7  69.3  275  11  6  11.9   6.5 |  22.8  73.0  265  13  6  10.5   5.8
  7750  21.6  70.9  275  11  6  10.3   5.6 |  23.6  74.5  265  12  6  10.0   5.5
  7500  22.3  72.1  275  11  5   7.9   4.3 |  24.3  75.7  265  12  6   9.0   4.9
  7250  22.9  73.2  275  11  5   8.5   4.7 |  24.9  76.8  265  12  6   9.1   5.0
  7000  23.6  74.5  275  10  5  12.7   7.0 |  25.7  78.3  265  12  6  10.6   5.8
  6750  24.6  76.3  270  10  5  12.2   6.7 |  26.5  79.7  265  11  6  10.9   6.0
  6500  25.4  77.7  270  10  5  10.1   5.6 |  27.3  81.1  265  11  6  10.6   5.8
  6250  26.2  79.2  275  10  5   9.8   5.4 |  28.1  82.6  260  11  6  10.7   5.8
  6000  27.0  80.6  275   9  5  12.7   7.0 |  28.8  83.8  260  10  5   8.5   4.7
  5750  28.3  82.9  270   9  4  26.0  14.3 |  29.5  85.1  265  10  5  11.6   6.4
  5500  30.8  87.4  275   8  4  36.5  20.0 |  31.5  88.7  260   9  5  51.9  28.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613