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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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307 FXUS65 KGJT 091051 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 451 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures reach 10-15 degrees above normal by the end of the week perhaps breaking records in spots. - Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible each day for the central and southern mountains through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 High pressure remains centered over the Desert Southwest bringing record temperatures to that region. This leaves our area under northerly flow and near normal temperatures. Yesterday return flow forced some moisture into the southern San Juans, but some of that has been pushed out overnight. Otherwise there is not much moisture in this pattern. Some models show slight chances for afternoon showers in the same place once again due to some moisture working in from the Northern Rockies. Most of this will only amount to cumulus on the higher terrain with perhaps a sprinkle. Not much changes in the pattern for tomorrow so expect the same conditions as today. Models show a slight increase in the chances for afternoon showers along the Divide, but overall the moisture is pretty similar. Highs look to come up a few degrees as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The ghastly high pressure baking the Great Basin starts sliding overhead Thursday. This will bump afternoon highs up a few degrees Thursday afternoon. Some sneaky subtropical moisture will manage to live another day in our southern counties. It looks like we will keep those chance showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon forecast. Showers will generally drift south from their source terrain and then weaken. Dry surface conditions could produce some gusty outflows from these storms. Friday will be a rinse and repeat of Thursday, but temperatures will notch up yet again as the center of the high pushes overhead. A few respectable pockets of subtropical moisture return Friday, this time with more coverage to the north as we appear to circulate some Pacific moisture around the top of the high. It does appear that we can expect some better shower coverage on the San Juans and perhaps the Abajos Friday afternoon. It looks like near record temperatures Friday afternoon. As we head into the weekend, cloud cover could have some impacts on afternoon highs. Our desert valleys will likely stay hot under abundant sunshine. Saturday and Sunday start looking more monsoonal as high pressure builds eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This is certainly an uptick from yesterday morning`s model runs. Terrain based shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase both Saturday and Sunday under this solution. Monday looks like more shower coverage, as PWAT`s get richer. Temperatures across the region will remain hot through the end of the extended period. Fortunately, the return of precipitation and cloud cover indicate we can at least expect periods of relief at the tail end of a very warm and dry forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 500 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions and light terrain-driven winds are expected through the taf period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...TGJT