Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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230 FXUS65 KGJT 080944 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 344 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers/storms may form over the San Juans today. Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies and the usual afternoon breezes are expected. - A warmup begins Tuesday and continues through the end of the week. Thursday and Friday will be hot as highs reach the upper 90s/low to mid 100s for many areas. - Moisture may return over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Starting to sound like a broken record thanks to that broad area of high pressure that remains centered over southern California. Yep, it`s still there. Despite a brief wind shift to northeasterly this morning because of a weak trough pushing through, north through northwesterly flow will remain across the CWA. Speaking of, that weak trough caused some gusty winds in the Uinta Basin and the Grand Valley for a few hours early this morning with some gusts reaching near 35 mph. As far as the rest of today is concerned, we`ll see similar temperatures as those we saw yesterday, and some lighter winds with the usual afternoon gusts of 20 mph, give or take. A few showers, maybe a quick rumble of thunder, over the San Juans down into the Pagosa Springs area also can`t be ruled out. Some CAPE in that general area indicates some instability and as the weak trough moves through, this should bring enough lift to fire off this convection. The HRRR and NAMNEST are also on board so the NBM solution of 20 to 30% chance for this convection looks reasonable. Quiet conditions move in overnight. Tuesday, the high pressure slowly moves eastward and this will be the beginning of a noticeable warmup. Triple digit highs will be common across central and southeastern Utah with upper 80s/low 90s for the northern and southern valleys. The Grand Valley will reach the upper 90s. Again, this is just the start of the warmup. As far as sensible weather is concerned, minor disturbances moving around the high pressure will allow instability to be released again bringing some minor convection to the San Juans but also along the Divide all the way up to the Wyoming border (20% chance). Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies and the usual afternoon breezes are on tap. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 214 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 The heatwave baking our neighbors in the Great Basin will slowly envelope the West Slope this week. Our desert valleys in eastern Utah will see triple digit highs develop by Wednesday and remain there through the extended period with some hope for clouds by next Sunday. Elsewhere, temperatures will trend 10-20 degrees over July climatology. Record highs this week for Grand Junction Regional Airport hover around 105 degrees through the forecast period. Present forecasts find us under that mark, but close enough to keep an eye to the forecast, especially for those who find excessive heat to be a problem for their health, etc. All of this heat is the product of a stubborn high pressure center that will drift east starting Wednesday, which is when we expect the Grand Valley to topple the 3 digit mark and stay there through next weekend. Hot and dry will be the dominant forecast concern this week, but thankfully, winds under the high pressure center will remain light enough to keep critical fire weather conditions muted. As noted here yesterday, the incursion of some moisture from the east over our southern mountains will pose a forecast challenge each afternoon. Dry surface conditions are certainly going to wreak havoc on rainfall potential, but considering we saw some light rain on Monarch Pass this morning, there is certainly a realistic chance for rain along the southern Divide each afternoon given the arrival of moisture. Area high temperatures look to top out Friday or Saturday. This will coincide with remnants of Beryl out of the picture out east, which allows the Bermuda high to build back westward. Models are picking up on another monsoonal push feeding northward to the Four Corners late Saturday and into Sunday. Hopefully, the increase in cloud cover and a scattered shower or two will come to fruition and knock back the excessive heat on Sunday and into Monday. For now, it would be best to find a cool spot to ride out the heat this week and if your work or play is outside then plan accordingly. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Not much change to report for the next TAF period. A weak shortwave has brought some northeasterly gusts to the terminals when we normally expect nocturnal drainage winds to setup. This will subside in the coming hours and winds will return to their overnight terrain driven patterns. Skies will remain mostly clear over the next 24 hours. Winds will pick up from the north again Monday, but remain less gusty than today, with 15-25 mph winds expected through Monday afternoon. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...LTB AVIATION...TGJT