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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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903 FXUS65 KGJT 032156 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 356 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue through the weekend with temperatures increasing. - Light disturbances rippling over the top of the high pressure ridge could bring some scattered clouds and maybe a shower to the Divide over the coming days. - Potential for monsoon moisture`s return is likely not until sometime early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An upper level trough working through the Intermountain West this afternoon with a respectable jet streak digging through its base is bringing some gusty winds to the region. Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon, but will quickly diminish with the winds and recovering humidities early this evening. A few showers and thunderstorms have taken advantage of some very targeted moisture and a shortwave ripple down in the San Juans this afternoon. Again, this activity will be short lived as we approach the early evening hours. Overnight lows tonight will remain pleasant in the lower dewpoints. Independence Day will look very similar to today with winds backing off behind today`s trough. The high pressure ridge over the West continues to amplify tomorrow, effectively blocking any moisture intrusion. This should keep a dry forecast on the books for Fourth of July festivities around the region. A few scattered clouds on the mountains along the Divide are possible and maybe a stray shower, but dry surface conditions are expected to keep any moisture from reaching the surface. Once again, lower dewpoints around the region will allow temperatures at sunset to dip efficiently. If taking in area fireworks, one might take along a light jacket. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 333 PM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 By Friday the ridge is well established over the West Coast, which means that dry northwest flow persists for our area. It will gradually nudge eastward over the weekend causing temperatures to get slightly warmer each day. The uncertainty in this pattern is the shortwaves that drop down from western Canada. This could occur several times during the forecast period, but their track and strength is tough to determine days out. These systems can keep the ridge parked over the West Coast, bring cooler air masses into the region and in some cases allow moisture to sneak in from the return flow. If the moisture reaches past the Front Range isolated showers are possible along the Divide. Despite the low chances for moisture most locations will remain dry through early next week. There are signs that mid next week the high drifts eastward, but at the same time the monsoon moisture returns. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1103 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions and terrain-driven winds are expected through the taf period. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...KJS AVIATION...TGJT