![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
734 FXUS63 KGID 142101 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM this evening for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, and Nance counties in Nebraska. Heat index values as high as 105 degrees are expected. - A Heat Advisory is also in effect for all counties along and south of Interstate 80 as well as Merrick and Polk counties in Nebraska, and for the entirety of north central Kansas, through 8PM Monday. Heat index values as high as 110 degrees are expected. - Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday through the end of the week, with high temperatures in the 80s Nebraska to around 90 over northern Kansas on Tuesday and then in the 70s and 80s Wednesday into next weekend. - Several small 20% chances for precipitation most evenings/overnights, with the best chance Tuesday evening into Tuesday night (30-60%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 This Evening into Tonight... It will be another warm muggy night with a slight chance (20%) that a few thunderstorms that develop west of our area could possibly slip into our western forecast zones mainly after 10 PM. Severe weather is not expected and the marginal risk area for today has been removed from the forecast. Any thunderstorms that can make it into our western forecast area should be dieing out as they move in or shortly after. Monday (Last Hot Day For Now)... Our Kansas zones will most likely still be baking with over 105 heat index values. However, northern zones will start to see some relief from the heat as a cold front slides southeast through the day. The NBM does indicate a pretty good spread in possible temperatures for this time of year leading towards more uncertainty in the Tri-Cities area due to frontal timing and cloud cover. However, heat index values in the Tri-Cities should still get over 100 for at least a little while and may still briefly hit 105 in some spots. The 18Z HRRR is one of the more aggressive models when it comes to evening thunderstorms moving in from the west and a little more aggressive than recent runs. Therefore, have increased POPs a bit above 20% NBM values, and closer to 30 percent favoring areas south and southwest of I-80. There is a marginal risk and we could see some isolated severe weather along and behind the cold front mainly during the later evening hours. Tuesday (Cooler and Best Chance for Rain)... The NBM temperature spread tightens up a bit in the 80s across Nebraska, while Kansas zones may still hit 90. Agree with NBM guidance that this is probably our best chance for a more widespread appreciable rainfall across the area. However, the most favored zones will be from about the Tri-Cities and points to the southwest and south (40-60%). Locations northeast of the Tri-Cities will see lower rainfall chances 30-40%. Again can not rule out a few isolated marginally severe storms. Wednesday through next Weekend... We will remain under the influence of a cooler northwesterly upper level flow pattern that will result in highs only in the upper 70s and 80s. Rainfall chances are not great, but within this flow pattern there will be weak shortwaves passing through resulting in several mainly small (20-30%) rain chances that tend to favor evening and overnight periods. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF valid period. The wind will be light through the remainder of the day generally out of the southeast to south. The wind will remain light overnight into Monday, but should become more westerly and even northwesterly as a cold front approaches and then passes through the area on Monday. Any cloud cover should generally be above 10,000 ft agl. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ048-049-060>064- 072>077-082>087. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046- 047. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely