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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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383 FXUS63 KGID 201757 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog will be possible mainly northwest of the Nebraska Tri-Cities through around 9 AM this morning. - Periodic small chances (10-40%) for mostly non-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the local area through Tuesday of next week. Temperatures will also remain below normal through at least Tuesday (70s to mid 80s). - Warmer temperatures (80s to lower 90s) and dry weather are anticipated for the latter half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A cluster of non-severe thunderstorms has slowly pushed south across much of the local area overnight. While there were some gusty winds in a few spots (less than 50 mph), most of the area has just received between 0.25 and 1.00 inch of beneficial rainfall. As of 4 AM, the remainder of this precipitation can be seen rotating around a developing mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) near the radar, with little to no lightning left across the local area. Expect this MCV to continue to push east southeast through the morning hours, with mostly dry weather in its wake. On satellite this morning, can also see the development and expansion of low clouds north of the departing system, and already have a couple areas with low ceilings and some fog across the region. While the worst of this fog is north of Highway 92, could see some light BR reach the Tri-cities over the next hour or two, although it is not expected to linger much past sunrise per latest model data. As a result, added some fog to the forecast as well as the wording for some patchy dense fog to the HWO through 9 AM CDT. Later today, a few breaks in cloud cover could allow for some shallow CU development and a few light showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, diminishing during the early evening. While there are small pops in the forecast to cover this, most areas will likely remain dry this afternoon/evening. Thereafter...continued off and on small chances for thunderstorms are expected in the amplified upper level pattern which will steer continued cooler than normal air and a few weak disturbances across the region in northerly flow. This pattern is expected to shift around mid-week when the upper level ridge across the intermountain west shift eastwards resulting in rising heights aloft (warmer temps) and significantly reduced chances for precipitation starting next Wednesday and continuing into at least next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Conditions have improved at both terminals from LIFR to IFR and now MVFR. MVFR ceilings will persist into the afternoon hours, slowly improving to VFR later today/evening. Fog, reduced visibilities and low ceilings causing IFR or lower (LIFR) conditions are possible again tonight at both terminals. There is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly driven by surface heating causing it to diminish as the sun sets this evening. These could impact a terminal, but will not be organized and will likely be added in an amendment. Showers and thunderstorms are not expected to be prevailing, but temporary. Winds will be light and variable through much of the area, where they do have some directional component, they will be light and north to northeast. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Billings Wright