316
FXUS63 KGID 162323
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms move north to south across the area
  through this evening. Large hail and localized damaging wind
  are possible...mainly 5pm to 11pm.

- Low chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms persist late tonight
  into Wednesday morning with additional spotty storms Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning. The threat for severe weather is
  low.

- Better chances for more widespread rain and thunderstorms
  arrive late this week into the weekend. The highest chances
  for thunderstorms will be late Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A few thunderstorms bubbled up near and west of Highway 183.
Unfortunately this was not handled particularly well by near
term modeling, but is not overly surprising given the uncapped
environment. These storms will likely persist for the next few
hours. With MLCAPE values up to 3000 J/kg and effective shear of
40kts, these storms could become severe with large hail and
locally damaging wind. Fortunately, the low-level shear profile
is not particularly favorable for tornado development.

Meanwhile, storms are also starting to develop in northern
Nebraska in the vicinity of a cold front. These storms are
expected to move south-southeasterly across the area this
evening, continuing the severe threat through 10-11pm. CAMs then
generally show weakening storms as this second round of storms
approaches the KS/NE state line.

Beyond tonight, the severe threat over the couple days looks
fairly low. That said there will be "pesky" chances for
thunderstorms both Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Highest chances for thunderstorms in both
of these cases will occur over the southwestern half of the
area.

More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances arrive with a
shortwave and surface front Friday into Saturday, and the latest
NBM now shows 60-80% PoPs for much of the area Friday night.
Given the time of year, there is a non-zero severe threat, but
the CSU-MLP severe probabilities are actually pretty low, with
only a 5% contour in the western half of the area.

Deterministic models then show an upper low cutting off over the
Midwest, bringing us continued rain/t-storm chances Saturday
through Monday, along with below-normal temperatures. High
temperatures on Sunday may struggle to even reach the mid 70s!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A cluster of thunderstorms north of BBW will continue southward
towards EAR, with potential development eastward towards GRI.
This will be mainly in the 01-04Z timeframe.

The potential for low stratus has decreased for Wednesday
morning, with the latest NBM only showing a 20-30% chance for
MVFR ceilings.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels