618
FXUS63 KGID 170747
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
247 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning and again early Friday morning. The threat
  for severe weather is low.

- Better chances for widespread rain and thunderstorms Friday
  and the weekend. The best chances (60-80%) will be late Friday
  afternoon through Saturday morning.

- High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s today through
  Friday before cooler weather this weekend and early next weeks
  brings high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today...
Much of the central Plains sits under northwest flow aloft in
between a broad upper trough extending across eastern portions
of the country and an upper level ridge over the western states.
This sets the area up for relatively light winds with high
temperatures in the 80s across the forecast area. With the light
winds and still decent low level moisture, cannot rule out a few
areas of patchy fog this morning, mainly across areas that
received rain last night. Thunderstorms are expected to form
over higher terrain in Colorado and move eastward, potentially
reaching our forecast area late evening or overnight (only a
15-25% chance). Most of these are expected to weaken or totally
fall apart before they get here, but the HRRR is suggesting a
brief uptick in activity overnight into Thursday morning, likely
enhanced by a shortwave moving across the area. These are
unlikely to be severe.

Thursday...
The area will be under the same northwesterly flow aloft
pattern, and again the low chances (15-25%) chances for
overnight thunderstorms return. High temperatures will range
from the upper 70s to the mid-80s.

Friday through the weekend...
The upper trough to the northeast is expected to deepen into the
forecast area Friday afternoon and potentially evolve into a
cutoff low over the weekend. This brings much higher chances of
precipitation to the region (60-80%). With highs forecast to
reach the 80s across much of the area, there will be enough
instability to support thunderstorm activity. Details are a
little fuzzy regarding the severe weather potential, but feel
there is at least a chance of it Friday evening into Saturday
morning. Saturday and Sunday rain and thunderstorm chances
continue as the potentially cutoff low sits over the area,
although those chances will be lower (20-40%). High
temperatures this weekend will be mainly in the 70s.

Early next week...
Below normal temperatures will likely continue as the upper low
gradually broadens out, with high temperatures again in the 70s
next Monday and in the 70s and 80s next Tuesday as the upper
trough shifts slightly farther east. Further on, if the forecast
this far out holds up, this may be the pattern for a bit with
broad upper troughing over the eastern and central US, a ridge
over the western US, and another strong low between the Gulf of
Alaska and the Pacific Northwest.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most
part. However, ensemble models indicate a 25-30% chance of MVFR
conditions between 10Z and 16Z this morning, so included a SCT
deck at around 2k ft...fog or light showers may be possible at
that time, but more likely this would be a stratus deck. Mostly
clear skies are expected up to the development of this stratus
deck, which will give way to mid-level clouds this afternoon,
and clear skies should return tonight. North to northeast winds
are expected through this evening at less than 8 kts, then light
and variable overnight tonight and into Thursday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford