151
FXUS63 KGID 181133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) potentially Friday
  morning, mainly north of Interstate 80.

- More widespread chances of precipitation (50-90%) arrive late
  Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Low rain/thunderstorm chances (15-35%) continue Saturday
  afternoon through Monday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures are expected over the weekend and
  early next week with highs in the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

This morning...A few light showers and/or isolated
thunderstorms have developed early this morning but are not
currently expected to sustain much of anything past this
morning. A quick few hundredths of an inch of rain may be
possible with the strongest rain shower. Patchy fog may develop
over our eastern counties closer to sunrise this morning but
cloud cover associated with showers to the west may prevent that
from occurring.

The rest of today...
Northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the region as we sit
between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper level
trough over the east. Surface winds will become southeasterly to
southerly as high pressure moves over Iowa and northern
Illinois. Winds will be only 5-10 mph east of Highway 281 but
10-15 mph west of Highway 281. High temperatures will climb into
the 80s across the entire forecast area.

Friday and Saturday...
Friday morning, an upper level trough will rotate through the
northern Plains and deepen as it enters the central Plains
during the afternoon and evening, while at the surface a front
will move NW to SE into the forecast area. This will be
enhanced by a pronounced shortwave, and this combination will
bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms to the entire area
(55-90%) late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. With
precipitable water values of 1.5" or higher and strong moisture
advection into the area, some areas can be expected to see well
over 1" per hour rainfall rates, so isolated flash flooding may
be possible, especially west of Highway 281...mainly in the
Friday evening and overnight timeframe. Additionally, some of
the thunderstorms may be on the strong to severe side,
especially along the front Friday evening. Damaging wind gusts
and heavy rain will be the primary threats. The entire area has
been outlooked with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Friday.

Saturday, rain and thunderstorm chances continue with the upper
trough still in the area, although the shortwave having already
moved through will reduce precipitation chances to around 40-60%
Saturday morning, then down to 15-30% Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures Friday are a little up in the air depending on the
timing of the frontal passage with a faster passage leaving
things a little cooler and highs north not making it out of the
70s. Went a little higher than that with highs in the 80s
expected across the entire area, with a couple of spots in north
central Kansas potentially approaching or touching 90 degrees.
Saturday will be cooler with high temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s east to the low 80s south and west.

Sunday and Monday...
Temperatures will continue to be below normal with the upper low
persisting over the area, with highs mainly in the 70s both
days, although a couple of locations across north central Kansas
may reach 80 degrees. With the upper low in place,
precipitation chances of 20-35% will continue through Monday
across the forecast area.

Next Monday through next Wednesday...
While perhaps not completely dry, it will be a lot drier than
this weekend with a couple of low chances of showers and
thunderstorms (15-25%) during that period. Temperatures are
expected to become gradually warmer each day, with highs
Wednesday back into the 80s across the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

A narrow band of showers with BKN to OVC clouds at 8-10 kft will
dissipate this morning, with FEW to SCT clouds at 5-8 kft
expected to remain through much of the TAF period. Expect
southerly winds at 7-10 kts through the afternoon, becoming SE
at 7-10 kts this evening, then southerly again at 7-10 kts early
Friday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford