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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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086 FXUS63 KGID 181737 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers/thunderstorms (20-40%) potentially Friday morning, mainly north of Interstate 80. - More widespread chances of precipitation (50-90%) arrive late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. - Low rain/thunderstorm chances (15-35%) continue Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. - Below normal temperatures are expected over the weekend and early next week with highs in the 70s and low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 This morning...A few light showers and/or isolated thunderstorms have developed early this morning but are not currently expected to sustain much of anything past this morning. A quick few hundredths of an inch of rain may be possible with the strongest rain shower. Patchy fog may develop over our eastern counties closer to sunrise this morning but cloud cover associated with showers to the west may prevent that from occurring. The rest of today... Northwesterly flow aloft prevails over the region as we sit between an upper ridge over the western CONUS and an upper level trough over the east. Surface winds will become southeasterly to southerly as high pressure moves over Iowa and northern Illinois. Winds will be only 5-10 mph east of Highway 281 but 10-15 mph west of Highway 281. High temperatures will climb into the 80s across the entire forecast area. Friday and Saturday... Friday morning, an upper level trough will rotate through the northern Plains and deepen as it enters the central Plains during the afternoon and evening, while at the surface a front will move NW to SE into the forecast area. This will be enhanced by a pronounced shortwave, and this combination will bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms to the entire area (55-90%) late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. With precipitable water values of 1.5" or higher and strong moisture advection into the area, some areas can be expected to see well over 1" per hour rainfall rates, so isolated flash flooding may be possible, especially west of Highway 281...mainly in the Friday evening and overnight timeframe. Additionally, some of the thunderstorms may be on the strong to severe side, especially along the front Friday evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain will be the primary threats. The entire area has been outlooked with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Friday. Saturday, rain and thunderstorm chances continue with the upper trough still in the area, although the shortwave having already moved through will reduce precipitation chances to around 40-60% Saturday morning, then down to 15-30% Saturday afternoon. Temperatures Friday are a little up in the air depending on the timing of the frontal passage with a faster passage leaving things a little cooler and highs north not making it out of the 70s. Went a little higher than that with highs in the 80s expected across the entire area, with a couple of spots in north central Kansas potentially approaching or touching 90 degrees. Saturday will be cooler with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s east to the low 80s south and west. Sunday and Monday... Temperatures will continue to be below normal with the upper low persisting over the area, with highs mainly in the 70s both days, although a couple of locations across north central Kansas may reach 80 degrees. With the upper low in place, precipitation chances of 20-35% will continue through Monday across the forecast area. Next Monday through next Wednesday... While perhaps not completely dry, it will be a lot drier than this weekend with a couple of low chances of showers and thunderstorms (15-25%) during that period. Temperatures are expected to become gradually warmer each day, with highs Wednesday back into the 80s across the entire area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: There is a high probability (95%+) for VFR conditions through this TAF period. The only potential chance for lowered vis/cig would be with spotty showers/t-storms Friday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Mangels