542
FXUS63 KGID 170532
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms move north to south across the area
  through this evening. Large hail and localized damaging wind
  are possible...mainly 5pm to 11pm.

- Low chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms persist late tonight
  into Wednesday morning with additional spotty storms Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning. The threat for severe weather is
  low.

- Better chances for more widespread rain and thunderstorms
  arrive late this week into the weekend. The highest chances
  for thunderstorms will be late Friday afternoon through
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A few thunderstorms bubbled up near and west of Highway 183.
Unfortunately this was not handled particularly well by near
term modeling, but is not overly surprising given the uncapped
environment. These storms will likely persist for the next few
hours. With MLCAPE values up to 3000 J/kg and effective shear of
40kts, these storms could become severe with large hail and
locally damaging wind. Fortunately, the low-level shear profile
is not particularly favorable for tornado development.

Meanwhile, storms are also starting to develop in northern
Nebraska in the vicinity of a cold front. These storms are
expected to move south-southeasterly across the area this
evening, continuing the severe threat through 10-11pm. CAMs then
generally show weakening storms as this second round of storms
approaches the KS/NE state line.

Beyond tonight, the severe threat over the couple days looks
fairly low. That said there will be "pesky" chances for
thunderstorms both Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Highest chances for thunderstorms in both
of these cases will occur over the southwestern half of the
area.

More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances arrive with a
shortwave and surface front Friday into Saturday, and the latest
NBM now shows 60-80% PoPs for much of the area Friday night.
Given the time of year, there is a non-zero severe threat, but
the CSU-MLP severe probabilities are actually pretty low, with
only a 5% contour in the western half of the area.

Deterministic models then show an upper low cutting off over the
Midwest, bringing us continued rain/t-storm chances Saturday
through Monday, along with below-normal temperatures. High
temperatures on Sunday may struggle to even reach the mid 70s!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for the most
part. However, ensemble models indicate a 25-30% chance of MVFR
conditions between 10Z and 16Z this morning, so included a SCT
deck at around 2k ft...fog or light showers may be possible at
that time, but more likely this would be a stratus deck. Mostly
clear skies are expected up to the development of this stratus
deck, which will give way to mid-level clouds this afternoon,
and clear skies should return tonight. North to northeast winds
are expected through this evening at less than 8 kts, then light
and variable overnight tonight and into Thursday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Hickford