879
FXUS63 KGID 111722
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today. Spotty showers/t-storms tonight into Friday
  morning, with additional low chances for t-storms Friday
  evening/night.

- Becoming increasingly hot through the weekend. Sunday and
  Monday will be the warmest days, with heat index values in the
  105-110 range for many locations.

- More widespread rain chances (and cooler temperatures) return
  early to middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

With light winds and low-level moisture, patchy fog may result
in minor visibility reduction this morning. Any fog should
dissipate pretty quickly after sunrise, though. Temperatures are
expected to be similar to yesterday (mid 80s to mid 90s).

The rest of the daytime should remain dry, and any
thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the forecast area
this afternoon and evening. As we move later into the overnight
(mainly after 3-4am), CAMs show spotty showers and thunderstorms
develop as a low-amplitude shortwave moves through the area.
Northern areas are most favored to see these showers/storms, but
most of the area will miss out entirely. Severe weather is not
expected.

Some of this activity could linger into Friday morning,
although confidence in coverage/intensity is fairly low. As
upper level ridging builds and more southerly surface winds
return, temperatures are expected to reach the 90s to low 100s
across the entire area. Parts of northern KS could approach
criteria for a Heat Advisory (heat index 105+), but the
expectation is that they will end up just short of it. There
will be another opportunity for a few showers/storms Friday
evening and overnight, but again, most spots will stay dry.

The heat really ramps up over the weekend. Heat index values
will already be pretty widespread in the 100-105 range on
Saturday, but Sunday and Monday are expected to be the worst
days, with some spots approaching 110 degrees. The experimental
HeatRisk product highlights this pretty well, with areas south
of I-80 in the "Major" risk category. Some areas near and south
of the state line are also forecast to reach the "Extreme" risk
category (mainly due to the cumulative effects of multiple days
of heat).

The ridge then breaks down as a upper shortwave and surface
front move through the area. Exact timing on this is uncertain,
but it appears that Tuesday will be noticably cooler for most of
the area, and this trend will continue into Wednesday/Thursday.
This pattern shift will also bring us better chances for more
widespread rain/t-storms next week. After a fairly dry week this
week, global ensembles favor a return to near-normal precip
totals next week into the following weekend (July 16-21).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Overall, its a VFR forecast for both KGRI and KEAR this forecast
period. The area remains in a northwest flow with high pressure
over the intermountain west. Some passing cumulus clouds around
3K AGL will be noted for a time this afternoon in an otherwise
clear sky.

A surface trough will become more defined on the lee-side of
the Rockies by Friday morning. In response, winds will turn from
east/southeast to more southeast by early Friday and start to
pick a bit (12kts or more) by late Friday morning. Despite a bit
more wind, increasing low level and a general haze from some
smoke in the air could lead to a brief periods of 5-6 mile
visibility at KGRI early Friday, but visibilities will not be
nearly as low as today. A TEMPO group was added for that
possibility.

A weak wave riding down the ridge in the northwest flow will
bring some mid-high level clouds to the forecast area Friday
morning but no precipitation is expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz