Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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887 FXUS63 KGID 112006 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 306 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers/sprinkles are possible late tonight-early Friday AM. - Scattered thunderstorm chances (15-20%) Friday night. - Temperatures increase this weekend with potentially dangerous heat Saturday through Monday. Heat Index values of 100-110 degrees are expected. - Scattered precipitation chances return Monday night and continue through Wednesday (25-45%), with cooler weather returning by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 This Afternoon and Overnight... Highs this afternoon are in the low to mid 80s across south central Nebraska, and in the low 90s across north central Kansas. Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue through the late evening hours. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s. A few showers/sprinkles are possible during the early morning hours on Friday as a weak shortwave moves through. Most areas are expected to remain dry. Friday... Any lingering showers/sprinkles are expected to come to an end during the mid morning hours on Friday. Ridging will build over the area on Friday with the first in a string of hot days expected for the area. Highs on Friday will range from the low 90s across northern portions of the area, to around 100 across southern portions of the area. Thunderstorm chances (15-20%) return to northern portions of the area Friday night as decaying thunderstorms from the panhandle of Nebraska move into the area. Saturday through Monday... Temperatures continue to increase this weekend, with potentially dangerous heat expected Saturday through Monday. Dry weather is expected this weekend, with sunny to mostly sunny skies each day. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s, with heat index values climbing over 100 degrees across much of the forecast area. Sunday is expected to be the warmest day of the forecast period, as highs soar into the upper 90s (north) to mid 100s (south & Southwest) across the area. Heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are expected on Sunday. Monday will be similar to Sunday for most areas, as highs once again climb into the upper 90s to mid 100s and heat index values reach into the mid 100s. The NWS experimental HeatRisk product places areas south of I-80 in the "major" category, with areas along/south of the NE/KS border climbing into the extreme category due to the extended period of high heat indices. Overall, potentially dangerous heat is expected this weekend and into early next week across the forecast area. Heat headlines will likely be needed across portions of the area this weekend and into early next week. Those with outdoor activities this weekend should take precautions to avoid heat related illnesses. Monday night onwards... Precipitation chances (15-30%) return to the area Monday night as an approaching trough brings a cold front into the area. Tuesday will be cooler across south central Nebraska with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Highs around 100 are possible across southern portions of the area where the cold front is slower to pass through. A much appreciated break from the heat will arrive by the middle of next week, with forecast highs in the 80s. Scattered precipitation chances (25-45%) continue Tuesday through the end of the forecast period as troughing develops over the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Overall, its a VFR forecast for both KGRI and KEAR this forecast period. The area remains in a northwest flow with high pressure over the intermountain west. Some passing cumulus clouds around 3K AGL will be noted for a time this afternoon in an otherwise clear sky. A surface trough will become more defined on the lee-side of the Rockies by Friday morning. In response, winds will turn from east/southeast to more southeast by early Friday and start to pick a bit (12kts or more) by late Friday morning. Despite a bit more wind, increasing low level and a general haze from some smoke in the air could lead to a brief periods of 5-6 mile visibility at KGRI early Friday, but visibilities will not be nearly as low as today. A TEMPO group was added for that possibility. A weak wave riding down the ridge in the northwest flow will bring some mid-high level clouds to the forecast area Friday morning but no precipitation is expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Moritz