028
FXUS63 KGID 171132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances (15-25%) for thunderstorms Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning and again early Friday morning. The threat
  for severe weather is low.

- Better chances for widespread rain and thunderstorms Friday
  and the weekend. The best chances (60-80%) will be late Friday
  afternoon through Saturday morning.

- High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s today through
  Friday before cooler weather this weekend and early next weeks
  brings high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today...
Much of the central Plains sits under northwest flow aloft in
between a broad upper trough extending across eastern portions
of the country and an upper level ridge over the western states.
This sets the area up for relatively light winds with high
temperatures in the 80s across the forecast area. With the light
winds and still decent low level moisture, cannot rule out a few
areas of patchy fog this morning, mainly across areas that
received rain last night. Thunderstorms are expected to form
over higher terrain in Colorado and move eastward, potentially
reaching our forecast area late evening or overnight (only a
15-25% chance). Most of these are expected to weaken or totally
fall apart before they get here, but the HRRR is suggesting a
brief uptick in activity overnight into Thursday morning, likely
enhanced by a shortwave moving across the area. These are
unlikely to be severe.

Thursday...
The area will be under the same northwesterly flow aloft
pattern, and again the low chances (15-25%) chances for
overnight thunderstorms return. High temperatures will range
from the upper 70s to the mid-80s.

Friday through the weekend...
The upper trough to the northeast is expected to deepen into the
forecast area Friday afternoon and potentially evolve into a
cutoff low over the weekend. This brings much higher chances of
precipitation to the region (60-80%). With highs forecast to
reach the 80s across much of the area, there will be enough
instability to support thunderstorm activity. Details are a
little fuzzy regarding the severe weather potential, but feel
there is at least a chance of it Friday evening into Saturday
morning. Saturday and Sunday rain and thunderstorm chances
continue as the potentially cutoff low sits over the area,
although those chances will be lower (20-40%). High
temperatures this weekend will be mainly in the 70s.

Early next week...
Below normal temperatures will likely continue as the upper low
gradually broadens out, with high temperatures again in the 70s
next Monday and in the 70s and 80s next Tuesday as the upper
trough shifts slightly farther east. Further on, if the forecast
this far out holds up, this may be the pattern for a bit with
broad upper troughing over the eastern and central US, a ridge
over the western US, and another strong low between the Gulf of
Alaska and the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Stratus is expected to develop toward the beginning of the TAF
period with CIGS between 3-6 kft AGL...although cannot rule out
a brief MVFR ceiling for the first hour or two. These stratus
clouds are not anticipated to be widespread but are expected to
linger through the morning at KGRI and possibly into the
afternoon near KEAR. Otherwise, just a few to SCT clouds at 7-10
kft AGL are expected through this evening. Cloud cover will
increase Thursday morning toward the end of the period.

Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming easterly
at 8 kts or less this afternoon and light and southeasterly
overnight tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford