011
FXUS63 KGID 122014
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
314 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorm chances (15-20%) this evening-overnight with
  damaging wind gusts and large hail possible.

- Dangerous heat expected this weekend, with a Heat Advisory in
  effect from 1pm Saturday through 8pm Sunday.

- Widespread heat index values of 100-110 degrees on Saturday
  and Sunday. Heat index values over 100 possible across
  portions of the area on Monday.

- Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances (15-55%) return
  by the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

This Afternoon and Overnight...

Highs this afternoon have climbed into the upper 80s to upper 90s
with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Portions of north
central Kansas will have heat index values top out around 100
degrees.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western Nebraska this
afternoon and move east into the area during the evening-overnight
hours. Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to be fairly
isolated, with most HREF members showing only isolated coverage.
Thunderstorms will weaken as they move east with a loss of daytime
heating and increasing capping. Instability and shear will be
sufficient for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms chances shift east overnight, ending by sunrise on
Saturday.

Saturday through Monday...

The biggest concern for the forecast period is the potentially
dangerous heat this weekend. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the
entire forecast area from 1pm Saturday through 8pm Sunday.

Temperatures will increase across the area on Saturday, with highs
in the mid 90s (north) to mid 100s (south). Heat index values of 100-
105 degrees are expected across most of the area on Saturday. Lows
Saturday night are expected to remain in the 70s for most areas,
providing limited relief from heat overnight. The hottest day of the
forecast period will be on Sunday, as highs soar into the upper 90s
(north) to mid 100s (south-southwest). Heat index values of 105 to
110 degrees are expected across the area.

An approaching trough will bring a cold front into the area on
Monday. The exact timing of this front is still uncertain, however
areas behind the cold front will see cooler temperatures with highs
in the low 90s. Areas that remain south of the front through the
late afternoon hours will see another day with highs in the upper
90s to mid 100s and heat index values over 100 degrees. Areas north
of I-80 are the most likely areas to see the cold front pass through
by the mid afternoon hours. Areas along and south of the NE/KS
border are the most likely to not see the cold frontal passage until
the evening hours. Heat headlines will likely be needed for portions
of the area on Monday, though it will depend on the timing of the
front. Mostly dry weather is expected this weekend, though an
isolated thunderstorm may impact northern portions of the area
Sunday night.

Overall, potentially dangerous heat is expected across the area this
weekend and into Monday. Heat index values over 100 degrees are
expected across the area on Saturday and Sunday, and a portion of
the area on Monday. Those with outdoor activities this weekend will
want to take precautions to avoid heat related illnesses.


Monday night onwards...

Thunderstorm chances (15-30%) return to the area Monday evening-
overnight. Cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs
in the 80s across north central Nebraska and in the low 90s across
north central Kansas.

A welcome break from the heat will arrive by the middle of the week.
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected across the area on
Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered precipitation chances (15-55%)
continue across the area Tuesday through Thursday, with the highest
chances (35-55%) occurring Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is a chance for an isolated shower/storm this afternoon-
evening, however confidence in timing or location is low. SCT
clouds of 12-15kft are possible through the overnight hours,
with decreasing cloud coverage Saturday morning. Southerly
winds will continue at 5-10kts through the evening, becoming
lighter and southeasterly overnight. Winds will slightly
increase Saturday morning and become southerly again.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis