Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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820 FXUS63 KGID 131133 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 633 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog are expected this morning, mainly along and north of Interstate 80. Generally visibility of 3 to 5 miles is expected, but there will be pockets of dense fog with visibility reduced to one quarter mile or less. - Dangerous heat expected this weekend, with a Heat Advisory in effect for the entire forecast area from 1PM Saturday through 8PM Sunday, and from 1PM Saturday through 8PM Monday for areas south of Highway 6 in south central Nebraska and across north central Kansas. - Widespread heat index values of 100-110 degrees expected during the afternoon and early evening both Saturday and Sunday, as well as across north central Kansas and areas south of Highway 6 in south central Nebraska Monday. - Cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances return by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 This morning... Patchy fog has developed early this morning along and north of Interstate 80. Forecast models hinted at this but did not really have a good grasp on visibility. Currently it appears that areas near the interstate should remain at or above 2SM visibility for the most part, while there may be a few areas of dense fog with a quarter mile or less visibility north of the interstate. Fog is expected to dissipate by around 9 this morning. An MCS that developed over northwestern Nebraska is expected to weaken and fizzle out as it approaches our forecast area this morning. Today through Monday... Upper level high pressure extending from the southwest CONUS into the central and southern Plains and south to southeast surface winds will allow temperatures to soar this weekend and potentially into early next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area from 1PM today until at least 8PM Sunday evening, and this advisory was extended until 8PM Monday evening for southern portions of the forecast area. Starting with today, high temperatures will climb into the 90s north and into the 100s south. Heat index values will be in the 100-105 degree range across the entire area and possibly near 110 degrees in some areas. High temperatures and heat index values will be similar Sunday, but a couple of degrees hotter than Saturday. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into the upper 60s and 70s tonight and Sunday night, and that will not be until well into the overnight hours both nights which will not allow for much recovery from the heat. This is a good portion of the reasoning behind carrying the heat advisory through the overnight hours as well. There may be a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday morning in proximately to a weak surface low passing to the north, but chances are low (15-25%). Monday, an approaching trough will bring a cold front across the region. Exact timing regarding this is uncertain, but temperatures behind the front Monday will be a little "cooler" and "only" reach the low to mid 90s. Temperatures south of the front will again reach 100-110 degrees. Confidence is fairly high that this will at least include north central Kansas, so the Heat Advisory was extended for that area and for areas just north of the NE/KS state line. Monday night onwards... A series of disturbances embedded in an upper level trough moving across the region will bring cooler weather and increased chances for precipitation, especially Monday night through Wednesday, with the best chances Monday night-Tuesday morning (30-40%) and Tuesday evening-Wednesday morning (30-55%). Wednesday through Friday precipitation chances will be lower as the trough pushes east and upper level ridging tries to take hold, but embedded shortwaves still support a 15-30% chance of precipitation for most of Wednesday through the end of the work week. High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are expected to be in the 80s to near 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Periods of IFR to LIFR CIGS/VIS are expected through 13/15Z at KEAR and KGRI due to fog. Fog has moved in over the TAF sites with visibility ranging from one quarter to one half of a mile. Expect fog to persist until around 15Z, although visibility may improve shortly after sunrise. Once fog dissipates around 15Z, VFR conditions will return and should prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be somewhat variable, but generally southeasterly through this evening, then southwesterly tonight and finally westerly near the end of the period. Expect a few clouds at 10k-15k AGL through today, with a few cirrus periodically through the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ082>087. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford