583
FXUS63 KGID 132055
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
355 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Sunday evening
  for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, and Nance counties in
  Nebraska. Heat index values as high as 108 degrees will be
  possible.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties along and
  south of Interstate 80, plus Merrick and Polk counties in
  Nebraska through 8PM Monday. Heat index values as high as 110
  degrees will be possible.

- Low (20%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  daily through Friday. There is a slightly better chance for
  showers and storms Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
  morning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The main story over the weekend and into Monday is the continued
heat.  An upper ridge remains in place over the Western CONUS and
northwest flow over the Great Plains with the heat settling in.  The
entire Hastings CWA remains in a Heat Advisory through at least
Sunday evening as heat index values of 105-108 are expected this
afternoon and values as high as 110 degrees are expected Sunday
afternoon. The Heat Advisory will expire for Howard, Valley,
Sherman, Greeley, and Nance counties at 8PM Sunday.

All remaining counties in the Hastings CWA will remain under a Heat
Advisory through 8PM Monday evening.  Heat index values for these
counties will approach 105-108 degrees.  There remains a bit of
uncertainty on whether or not the advisory will need to be expanded
further north as we come closer to the event.  A cold front is
expected to move into the area as early as Monday, however, how far
south it makes it is still up in the air.

Tuesday will bring a reprieve from the heat, with expected highs in
the low to mid-80s for most locations in Nebraska, and the mid-80s
to low 90s for north central Kansas.  The cooler temperatures are
expected to last through the end of the forecast period, with highs
mainly in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

With the area under northwest flow, there are daily 20% chances for
a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, across portions of the
CWA.  The best chances for shower/thunderstorm activity appears to
be Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.  WPC has outlooked
portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for
Tuesday.  SPC has outlooked a small portion of the area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather for both tomorrow and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at both
terminals. Winds are currently out of the southwest to west, and
are expected to turn to the south this evening. After midnight,
winds will shift to the southwest around 5-10kts. A few areas
may have some mid-level clouds move in late this evening into
early tomorrow morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ048-049-060>064-
     072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ039>041-046-047.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Wekesser