622
FXUS63 KGID 140534
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Sunday evening
  for Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, and Nance counties in
  Nebraska. Heat index values as high as 108 degrees will be
  possible.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties along and
  south of Interstate 80, plus Merrick and Polk counties in
  Nebraska through 8PM Monday. Heat index values as high as 110
  degrees will be possible.

- Low (20%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  daily through Friday. There is a slightly better chance for
  showers and storms Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
  morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The main story over the weekend and into Monday is the continued
heat.  An upper ridge remains in place over the Western CONUS and
northwest flow over the Great Plains with the heat settling in.  The
entire Hastings CWA remains in a Heat Advisory through at least
Sunday evening as heat index values of 105-108 are expected this
afternoon and values as high as 110 degrees are expected Sunday
afternoon. The Heat Advisory will expire for Howard, Valley,
Sherman, Greeley, and Nance counties at 8PM Sunday.

All remaining counties in the Hastings CWA will remain under a Heat
Advisory through 8PM Monday evening.  Heat index values for these
counties will approach 105-108 degrees.  There remains a bit of
uncertainty on whether or not the advisory will need to be expanded
further north as we come closer to the event.  A cold front is
expected to move into the area as early as Monday, however, how far
south it makes it is still up in the air.

Tuesday will bring a reprieve from the heat, with expected highs in
the low to mid-80s for most locations in Nebraska, and the mid-80s
to low 90s for north central Kansas.  The cooler temperatures are
expected to last through the end of the forecast period, with highs
mainly in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

With the area under northwest flow, there are daily 20% chances for
a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, across portions of the
CWA.  The best chances for shower/thunderstorm activity appears to
be Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.  WPC has outlooked
portions of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for
Tuesday.  SPC has outlooked a small portion of the area in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather for both tomorrow and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

There is the potential for fog at the TAF sites from
approximately 09Z to 14Z Sunday morning. Model guidance
indicates the presence of fog but there is little consensus
within the forecast models regarding how dense it will be.
Included 4SM visibility in the TAFs but it could become more
dense, as model guidance indicates a 20 to 40 percent chance of
visibility less than 3SM.

Otherwise, skies are expected to be mostly clear with light and
variable winds through most of the TAF period. SCT high level
clouds are expected to move in toward the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ048-049-060>064-
     072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046-
     047.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wekesser
AVIATION...Hickford