734
FXUS63 KGID 142101
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
401 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM this evening for
  Valley, Greeley, Sherman, Howard, and Nance counties in
  Nebraska. Heat index values as high as 105 degrees are
  expected.

- A Heat Advisory is also in effect for all counties along and
  south of Interstate 80 as well as Merrick and Polk counties in
  Nebraska, and for the entirety of north central Kansas,
  through 8PM Monday. Heat index values as high as 110 degrees
  are expected.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday through the end of
  the week, with high temperatures in the 80s Nebraska to around
  90 over northern Kansas on Tuesday and then in the 70s and
  80s Wednesday into next weekend.

- Several small 20% chances for precipitation most
  evenings/overnights, with the best chance Tuesday evening into
  Tuesday night (30-60%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

This Evening into Tonight...
It will be another warm muggy night with a slight chance (20%)
that a few thunderstorms that develop west of our area could
possibly slip into our western forecast zones mainly after 10
PM. Severe weather is not expected and the marginal risk area
for today has been removed from the forecast. Any thunderstorms
that can make it into our western forecast area should be
dieing out as they move in or shortly after.


Monday (Last Hot Day For Now)...
Our Kansas zones will most likely still be baking with over 105
heat index values. However, northern zones will start to see
some relief from the heat as a cold front slides southeast
through the day. The NBM does indicate a pretty good spread in
possible temperatures for this time of year leading towards more
uncertainty in the Tri-Cities area due to frontal timing and
cloud cover. However, heat index values in the Tri-Cities should
still get over 100 for at least a little while and may still
briefly hit 105 in some spots. The 18Z HRRR is one of the more
aggressive models when it comes to evening thunderstorms moving
in from the west and a little more aggressive than recent runs.
Therefore, have increased POPs a bit above 20% NBM values, and
closer to 30 percent favoring areas south and southwest of I-80.
There is a marginal risk and we could see some isolated severe
weather along and behind the cold front mainly during the later
evening hours.


Tuesday (Cooler and Best Chance for Rain)...
The NBM temperature spread tightens up a bit in the 80s across
Nebraska, while Kansas zones may still hit 90. Agree with NBM
guidance that this is probably our best chance for a more
widespread appreciable rainfall across the area. However, the
most favored zones will be from about the Tri-Cities and points
to the southwest and south (40-60%). Locations northeast of the
Tri-Cities will see lower rainfall chances 30-40%. Again can
not rule out a few isolated marginally severe storms.


Wednesday through next Weekend...
We will remain under the influence of a cooler northwesterly
upper level flow pattern that will result in highs only in the
upper 70s and 80s. Rainfall chances are not great, but within
this flow pattern there will be weak shortwaves passing through
resulting in several mainly small (20-30%) rain chances that
tend to favor evening and overnight periods.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF valid
period. The wind will be light through the remainder of the day
generally out of the southeast to south. The wind will remain
light overnight into Monday, but should become more westerly
and even northwesterly as a cold front approaches and then
passes through the area on Monday. Any cloud cover should
generally be above 10,000 ft agl.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ048-049-060>064-
     072>077-082>087.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046-
     047.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely