010
FXUS63 KGID 160905
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
405 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue through much of this
  morning, but storms are expected to weaken as sunrise
  approaches. There is another potential for thunderstorms this
  evening, most likely within the 3PM to midnight timeframe.
  Some of those storms may be severe, with large hail and strong
  winds being the main threat.

- After a dry Wednesday and most likely dry Thursday, rain and
  thunderstorm chances return Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures will still be warm today, but cooler Wednesday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This will be a fairly brief discussion with severe weather
across portions of the area this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area this morning, with
some of the storms in Kansas producing hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 70 mph. These are expected to weaken
and move off to the east this morning. Severe weather should be
limited to north central Nebraska.

Later today, thunderstorms are expected to move into the
forecast area from the north, and some of these may be strong
to severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph and up to ping pong ball
size hail (1.5" diameter) possible in the strongest storms.
The timeframe for storms this afternoon and evening is
approximate 3PM to midnight. High temperatures will be in the
80s across south central Nebraska and into the low 90s in north
central Kansas.

Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast area will be under
northwest flow aloft as we sit between a broad upper trough over
the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the western CONUS. This will
bring some cooler temperatures and dry weather to the area with
highs in the 70s and 80s both days.

Friday through the weekend, a more pronounced upper trough will
move over the central Plains, bringing better chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances within this
timeframe will be Friday evening and night with a 50-70 percent
chance across the area, with a 20-40 percent chance through the
rest of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 80s on
Friday but likely only in the 70s on the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with a small
chance of a few showers (maybe a thunderstorm in the vicinity as
well) between 16/08Z and sunrise. The line of storms to the west
has weakened into mainly showers. Winds will be light and
variable with a BKN cloud deck at 12k-15k ft AGL through much of
Tuesday morning. A front will bring a chance of TSRA through the
TAF sites Tuesday evening, most likely some time between 16/23Z
and 17/03Z. Have treated this with a VCTS group for now until we
can narrow down the timing with either a prevailing or a TEMPO
group, potentially with the next set of TAFs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford