289
FXUS63 KGID 161142
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue through much of this
  morning, but storms are expected to weaken as sunrise
  approaches. There is another potential for thunderstorms this
  evening, most likely within the 3PM to midnight timeframe.
  Some of those storms may be severe, with large hail and strong
  winds being the main threat.

- After a dry Wednesday and most likely dry Thursday, rain and
  thunderstorm chances return Friday through the weekend.

- Temperatures will still be warm today, but cooler Wednesday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This will be a fairly brief discussion with severe weather
across portions of the area this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area this morning, with
some of the storms in Kansas producing hail to the size of
quarters and wind gusts to 70 mph. These are expected to weaken
and move off to the east this morning. Severe weather should be
limited to north central Nebraska.

Later today, thunderstorms are expected to move into the
forecast area from the north, and some of these may be strong
to severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph and up to ping pong ball
size hail (1.5" diameter) possible in the strongest storms.
The timeframe for storms this afternoon and evening is
approximate 3PM to midnight. High temperatures will be in the
80s across south central Nebraska and into the low 90s in north
central Kansas.

Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast area will be under
northwest flow aloft as we sit between a broad upper trough over
the eastern CONUS and a ridge over the western CONUS. This will
bring some cooler temperatures and dry weather to the area with
highs in the 70s and 80s both days.

Friday through the weekend, a more pronounced upper trough will
move over the central Plains, bringing better chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances within this
timeframe will be Friday evening and night with a 50-70 percent
chance across the area, with a 20-40 percent chance through the
rest of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 80s on
Friday but likely only in the 70s on the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds are expected
through the majority of the TAF period. Winds will be somewhat
variable today at around 5 kts with VCSH much of the morning.
Late this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move across the area. Although the latest forecast
models are less aggressive in thunderstorm coverage, somewhere
around 17/00 to 17/04 is when storms can be expected at the TAF
sites. Overnight tonight, winds will become more consistently
northerly at less than 8 kts. At the end of the TAF period
(Wednesday morning) there is increasing confidence of at least
low stratus and perhaps fog at both TAF sites. Elected to go
with low stratus in the TAFs for now as confidence is low
regarding reduced visibility.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford