177
FXUS65 KGGW 140928
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
328 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are likely across portions
  of northeast Montana through this evening.

- Seasonal temperatures remain in place with daily chances for
  convection returning by Friday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A weak shortwave trough and surface stationary front near the
North Dakota border will pull in some monsoonal moisture today.
This will lead to another round of thunderstorms into the early
evening hours with locally heavy rainfall, mainly along this
boundary. A few stronger wind gusts over 40 mph cannot be ruled
out again, but the slow-moving storm motion environment reflects
in the limited potential for any severe wind shown by the HREF.

The remainder of the week features near to slightly above normal
temperatures as an upper level ridge remains mostly flat or makes
a small rebound. Occasional shortwave troughs and increased
moisture advection over NE Montana near the top of the ridge
justifies at least isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms
most days.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high for thunderstorm development today, but low for
severe potential. Through the middle of next week, there remains
medium confidence in the pattern remaining mostly stagnant and
typical for August.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0900Z

FLIGHT CAT: MVFR - VFR

DISCUSSION: Partial clearing of skies today will allow for another
round of thunderstorms, particularly from 20Z-02Z near the North
Dakota border (KGDV/KSDY). Brief heavy rainfall, gusty/erratic
winds and reduction to MVFR visibility are expected with any
direct impacts to a terminal.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow