970
FXUS65 KGGW 141933
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
133 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are likely across portions
  of northeast Montana through 9 PM tonight.

- Seasonal temperatures remain in place with scattered convection
  expected on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

With low-level moisture lingering behind the surface low that
moved through yesterday, a surface trough and cooling 500 mb
temperatures is helping aid in scattered thunderstorm development
across the area. With high PWAT values (>1 inch) in place, any
storm will produce heavy rain, with high confidence in 1 inch per
hour rainfall rates. Brief gusty winds may also accompany these
storms.

Thursday is expected to be dry as a shortwave ridge moves into MT.
Then Friday an oncoming shortwave trough will pass through,
bringing a period of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
evening through Saturday morning. There is moderate confidence of
isolated showers and storms continuing each day from Day 3
through 7, with uncertainty in timing and location of storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high for thunderstorm development today, but low for
severe potential. Through the middle of next week, there remains
medium confidence in the pattern remaining mostly stagnant and
typical for August.

-Zanker/Stoinskers


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: There are scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon that will last through around 02Z. These storms may
bring TAF sites down to MVFR briefly, with low visibilities and
ceilings due to heavy rain. Skies will clear out and winds are
expected to diminish, so there is low to moderate (30 to 50
percent) confidence of patchy fog developing at TAF sites between
08Z and 16Z.

Winds: Northwest at 8 to 17 knots, becoming light and variable
after 02Z, becoming northwest at 6 to 12 knots after 16Z.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow