882
FXUS65 KGGW 122006
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
206 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A hot day is expected tomorrow (Tuesday) before thunderstorms
  develop and move east across the area later in the day.

- Strong thunderstorms late tomorrow (Tuesday) are possible.
  Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible thereafter.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper ridge overhead will allow for a hot day across the area
Tuesday before an upper trough from western Canada moves in and
brings an increased chance of thunderstorms late in the day.
Better instability looks to occur over the eastern half of the CWA
but drier low levels may create stronger wind gusts over the
western zones. 12z HREF is showing the best potential for severe
winds to be over south-central Montana Tuesday afternoon with
weak signals for hail over our eastern zones. Models have
decreased the dry-line influence over the CWA and thus lower QPF
is expected.

The next best chance of showers/thunderstorms looks to be late
Friday but with better chances over central Montana.

An upper ridge will build over Montana later this week and will
bring warm conditions into early next week. Some monsoonal
moisture looks to bring small chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is moderate that scattered thunderstorms will develop
late Tuesday as steepening mid-level lapse rates and daytime
heating support moderate instability. Isolated stronger storms are
possible with modest shear profiles.

Confidence is lower on shower/thunderstorm chances thereafter. TFJ

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.

DISCUSSION: An isolated thunderstorm or two may move into the NE
MT airports later this evening or tonight. A better chance of
thunderstorms can be expected Tuesday evening, bringing strong
winds and possible hail.

WINDS: SE 10-20 kts gradually decreasing into Tuesday morning. TFJ

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow