624
FXUS65 KGGW 132034
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
234 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are expected across
  portions of northeast Montana through Thursday morning.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible this evening. Isolated
  showers and thunderstorms are possible thereafter.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A weak upper ridge of high pressure will allow for a hot day
across the area today before an upper trough of weak low pressure
from western Canada moves in and brings an increased chance of
thunderstorms late in the day and through Wednesday. Atmospheric
conditions to develop and support storms are somewhat
disconnected, leading to some uncertainty in storm location and
rainfall amounts. Shear has become more limited, thus decreasing
the overall severe potential.

The remainder of the week will features a rebounding upper ridge
on Thursday with near normal temperatures, followed by the
occasional shortwave pushing through the top of the ridge which will
bring small chances for showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is average to moderate that scattered thunderstorms
will develop late today as steepening mid-level lapse rates and
daytime heating support moderate instability. Isolated stronger
storms are possible with modest shear profiles although the
showers and thunderstorms from overnight may have an impact on
instability today.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR. Clear skies today will be followed by another round of
thunderstorms, a few of which may move directly over a TAF site
tonight through Wednesday night. Winds will either be light and
variable or gusty near the stronger storms.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow