986
FXUS64 KFWD 131018
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Another seasonably hot day is expected across North Texas although
we`ll likely see a little better coverage of afternoon
showers/storms south of I-20 today. The plume of deeper moisture
that has been over Deep South Texas has spread a little farther
north overnight and will support scattered thunderstorms during
peak heating. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the
forecast through Sunday.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Sunday/

Stronger ridging has thus far remained centered over the western
CONUS keeping us seasonably hot, but also removed from the hottest
temperatures. A persistent weakness in the mid level heights will
linger today across the Southern Plains while deeper moisture that
has been generally confined to Deep South Texas spreads northward.
2"+ PWs will nose into our Central TX counties by midday and
strong heating combined with weak forcing for ascent should
result in a slightly better coverage of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, particularly south of I-20. This activity will be
diurnally driven, decreasing in coverage toward sunset. PoPs will
range from 20-40% this afternoon with the highest chances across
our far southern and southeastern counties. Another mostly clear
and warm night is expected with any lingering convection
dissipating after sunset. Overnight lows will creep upward
Saturday night with most areas in the mid 70s.

Ridging will expand eastward a bit on Sunday with that deeper
moisture also getting pushed farther east into southeast Texas by
Sunday afternoon. We should still see some isolated afternoon
thunderstorms, but coverage will be less than 20% and generally
confined to our far eastern and southeastern counties.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon with
highs topping out in the upper 90s. The exception will be in our
southeastern counties where additional cloud cover may keep temps
in the lower 90s, although it will be more humid.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/Monday and Beyond/

A ridge of high-pressure will settle over the Four Corners Region
by early next week as North and Central Texas remains beneath a
persistent col through at least midweek. Weak mid- and upper-level
flow will keep relatively dry air anchored over the region
maintaining higher rain chances to our south and east each
afternoon in the higher PWAT airmass. Expect afternoon highs to
inch toward the century mark early next week as 22-26 degreeC
850mb temperatures sprawl overhead. This slight uptick in
temperatures and a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture
through the week may cause heat index values to approach Heat
Advisory criteria at several locations in the Monday-Wednesday
timeframe.

Looking toward the end of next work week, ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to highlight an upper-level trough
digging south across the Plains toward the Mississippi River
Valley. This would send a summer cold front toward North Texas in
the Wednesday night-Thursday timeframe, increasing rain chances
through the end of the week across the region. Thunderstorm
coverage will likely peak during the afternoon/early evening
hours each day in the vicinity of this boundary during max
diurnal heating. There is currently quite a bit of spread in the
rainfall totals amongst ensemble members; highly dependent upon
the strength and southward progression of the frontal boundary.
But right now, a good starting place for likely rainfall totals
over North and Central Texas during the second half of next week
falls in the 0.25-0.75" range with isolated totals over 1.5"
(especially along/east of I-35).

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail across the region today through Sunday although
there will be a little better coverage of scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon. This will mainly be south of the D10 airspace but
may impact Waco through the peak heating of the afternoon and
could have some limited impacts to southern arrival sectors.
Otherwise, no significant concerns are expected through Sunday
with southerly winds 10-15 kt expected to continue.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  98  80  99 /   5   0  10   0   0
Waco                92  74  96  76  98 /  20   5   5   0   0
Paris               94  73  95  75  96 /   0   0  10   0   5
Denton              97  74  99  77 100 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            96  75  97  77  99 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dallas              97  77  99  79 100 /   5   0  10   0   0
Terrell             94  74  95  75  97 /  10   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           94  75  96  77  97 /  20   5  10   0   5
Temple              92  72  95  74  97 /  30  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  72  99  75 100 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$