035
FXUS64 KFWD 131952
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
252 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/Through Sunday/

North and Central Texas will remain beneath weak ridging through
the weekend, with the ridge axis firmly planted over the Four
Corners Region. A plume of rich Gulf moisture will continue to
migrate northward into Central Texas through the remainder of the
day. We`re beginning to see some isolated to scattered diurnally-
driven showers and storms develop within this plume of moisture.
This trend will continue through the afternoon, with all activity
waning near sunset this evening. While another hot afternoon is
expected today, temperatures will remain below 100 degrees for
most locations and potentially only in the 80s for portions of
Central Texas where increasing cloud cover and the highest
coverage of showers and storms are expected. The increase in
moisture will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Urban areas across the
Metroplex will likely only fall into the upper 70s.

Sunday will be a bit warmer as slightly stronger ridging builds
into the region. While actual temperatures will still remain
below 100 degrees for most of the area, heat index values between
100-105 degrees are expected for nearly all locations. The plume
of Gulf moisture will have shifted further south and east by
tomorrow, resulting in little to no chance for rain. The main
exception will be east of I-35 and south of I-20 where we can`t
rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Onward/

The first half of this upcoming week will feature gradually warming
temperatures as the upper ridging mentioned in the short term
forecast discussion above continues to slowly build east into the
Southern Plains. With the high center staying to our west, we`ll
be spared from the hottest of temperatures as the region stays
planted under a well-defined col. Afternoon highs in the low-mid
90s to just above 100 combined with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s
will push peak heat indices near/above the century mark Monday
through Wednesday. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in
portions of the region during this time, so expect heat headlines
to make their return into the forecast.

Thankfully the heat will not be prolonged as the ridge will be
shunted back westward in response to a digging longwave trough
that is progged to move across the eastern CONUS during mid-late
week. At the surface, an associated cold front will move south,
passing through through North and Central Texas late Wednesday
into Thursday. In response to the increased lift from the front
and minor shortwave disturbances moving around the base of the
trough, showers and storms will be possible beginning late
Wednesday and Thursday as the front passes. Unsettled weather
will linger through the end of the week as additional disturbances
move overhead. Latest most likely 72-hour rainfall accumulations
through Friday morning are 0.50"-1", with isolated higher amounts
up to 1.5"- 2". As this does not encompass Friday afternoon,
rainfall totals will change in the coming forecasts, so check back
frequently for new updates.

Thanks to the frontal passage and rain-cooled air, afternoon
temperatures will drop to below normal for this time of year. Expect
afternoon highs in the upper 80s and 90s to kick off the weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through the period. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms have developed across Central Texas, with
additional development expected through the afternoon. VCTS was
introduced to the KACT TAF from 19-00Z, but the best potential
looks to be after 20Z. Any convective activity is expected to
remain south of D10, ending near sunset this evening with the loss
of daytime heating. Additional isolated storms are expected
across East/Southeast Texas tomorrow, but this activity will
remain east of all terminals.

Winds will generally remain out of the south, but will vary between
southeast and southwest at times. Wind speeds will be between
10-15 knots or less through the period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  79 100  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
Waco                74  96  75  98  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               74  94  75  95  76 /   0   5   5   5   0
Denton              74  99  77 100  77 /   0   5   0   0   0
McKinney            75  97  77  99  77 /   0   5   0   0   0
Dallas              77  99  79 100  80 /   0   5   0   0   0
Terrell             74  95  75  97  75 /   5  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           75  97  77  98  77 /  10  20   0   0   0
Temple              73  95  74  97  73 /  10   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  99  74 100  75 /   0   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$