802
FXUS64 KFWD 091039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Only minor grid updates were made to this morning`s forecast
package. Mostly sunny skies, rain-free conditions, and warming
temperatures are expected across North and Central Texas in the
wake of Tropical Depression Beryl as it continues its
northeastward trek. See the discussion below for more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Light rain has mostly exited our forecast area as the circulation
of now Tropical Depression Beryl shifts over the ArkLaTex region.
The Flood Watch for eastern North and Central Texas has been
canceled. Low clouds associated with low-level moisture on the
western periphery of Beryl will persist through the remainder of
the overnight and into early Tuesday morning primarily east of the
I-35 corridor.

As the remnants of Beryl shift over the Ohio River Valley Tuesday,
surface high pressure will filter over North and Central Texas
allowing for mostly sunny conditions and warmer temperatures.
Expect afternoon highs to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across
much of the region Tuesday afternoon. Winds will return out of the
southeast by late Tuesday evening.

Strong upper-level ridging will remain over the western CONUS
through the short-term forecast period keeping North and Central
Texas under north-northwest flow aloft. Hot conditions will
return by Wednesday with afternoon highs in the mid-90s. High-
resolution guidance is hinting at some diurnally-driven
convection Wednesday afternoon across portions of North and
Central Texas. However, with MLCAPE generally below 500 J/kg,
weak flow aloft, no discernible surface boundaries, and
relatively dry air below 700mb, coverage will likely remain very
isolated (less than 10%).

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 236 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/
/Thursday Onward/

No significant weather events are expected for the next 7-10 days.
Temperatures will hover near to slightly above seasonal norms with
south winds around 5-10 mph each day. The south winds will draw
better moisture into the region this weekend and early next week
resulting in afternoon heat index values in the low 100s, but
generally below our Heat Advisory criteria. The moisture boost
will also support a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
Central Texas.

The quiet weather pattern is a result of Texas being underneath a
mid-level col between weather systems. The most dominant weather
system is a ridge over the Western CONUS that will subtly shift
east and elongate over the Central CONUS this weekend. The ridge`s
increased influence should nudge temperatures up, with much of
North Texas having a greater than 50% chance of experiencing
triple digit heat next Monday and Tuesday (higher chance west of
I-35/35W, lower east).

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all
TAF sites. FEW to SCT 015-025 cigs can currently be observed
across portions of North Texas on the western periphery of
Tropical Depression Beryl. These intermittent MVFR cigs may move
over the D10 terminals through 14Z-15Z this morning, but will
likely remain too spotty in coverage for a mention in the TAF.
Any impacts will be brief.

North-northwest winds around 10kts will persist through this
afternoon, turning out of the southeast later this evening.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  75  97  76  96 /   0   0   5   0   0
Waco                94  73  96  72  96 /   0   0  10   0   0
Paris               88  69  93  70  93 /   5   0   5   0   0
Denton              93  71  96  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  71  95  72  95 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              93  75  97  75  97 /   0   0   5   0   0
Terrell             91  71  93  71  94 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           92  73  95  73  95 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              94  73  96  72  97 /   0   0  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       94  70  96  71  97 /   0   0   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$