890
FXUS64 KFWD 092014
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
314 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 123 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

Beryl`s subsidence zone is clearly evident in the cumulus field
(or lack thereof) from Texoma into East Texas. But from western
portions of North and Central Texas into the I-35 corridor, the
sky is dotted with cumulus. A few deeper convective attempts
(moderate cumulus) have encountered dry mid-level air. The MCS
surging into the South Texas Plains has sent some outflow in the
direction of our southwestern frontier. While an isolated shower
or storm can`t be ruled out in our far southwest, subsidence and
dry air aloft should keep these cells from invading.

Otherwise, Beryl will continue its control of the surface wind
field, assuring north winds, below normal daytime temperatures,
and remarkably comfortable humidity by July standards. After a
mild night tonight, temperatures will return closer to seasonal
normals on Wednesday as light winds remove the cold advection and
allow the July sun to steadily heat a largely undisturbed surface
layer.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Evening Onward/

North and Central Texas will remain between two strong areas of
high pressure, one along the East Coast and another in the west.
With no significant weather systems expected to traverse our
region over the next week, much of our region will experience
temperature right around normal with no widespread rain expected.

Temperatures the rest of this week are expected to stay below the
triple digit mark as heat index values stay below 105. As we head
into the weekend, sufficient low-level southerly flow will
increase moisture content areawide, leading to a a few afternoon
showers and storms across the Brazos Valley and East Texas.
Overall, rain chances will remain below 20%. All storms should
remain below severe limits given a lack of appreciable shear.

Heading into next week, the ridge to our west will begin to shift
eastward into the Central Plains. Across North and Central Texas,
we`ll be on the southern fringes of the high, likely evading the
return of a multi-week heat wave.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 123 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

No concerns. VFR with north flow this afternoon, light and
variable thereafter.

Beryl continues to depart but will maintain dominance, with
unseasonal north winds. In addition to reducing the humidity and
corresponding instability, Beryl`s subsident zone should assure
the daytime CU stay within the boundary layer.

A weak pressure gradient at the surface will mean a rather
disorganized wind field tonight and Wednesday. A southerly
component should prevail much of the time, but in any event,
speeds should be low enough to allow for any flow configuration.

25

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  97  76  96  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  93  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              70  97  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  96  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              75  98  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  95  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  96  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  97  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$