928
FXUS64 KFWD 101705
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

Our typical summer heat is in full swing today with most
locations reaching the upper 90s later this afternoon. While
surface ridging remains in control across the region, the
presence of a weak boundary and diurnal heating will be
sufficient for a few short-lived showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon across portions of North and Central Texas. Given the
dry air aloft, coverage should remain fairly isolated with the
main concern being occasional lightning. Any activity will
diminish near/before sunset with quiet and mostly clear
conditions expected overnight. Low temperatures will remain in
the 70s with light southerly winds.

Another hot day is in store on Thursday with highs in the mid-
upper 90s and east/southeast winds between 5-10 mph. While some
of the latest CAMs show the potential for another round isolated
convection during the afternoon, the lack of decent moisture at
all levels should keep the coverage near or below 10%.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/
/Friday through Tuesday/

Quiescent and relatively typical July weather remains on tap for
North Central Texas from Friday through the middle of next week.

For much of the period, our region will find itself lodged
between a strong upper high center over the Intermountain West and
a weaker ridge over the middle Gulf Coast. The relative weakness
in the height field over Texas yield an opportunity for scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Additional widely
scattered convection may also develop in this same area on Sunday.
Daytime highs through the weekend should reach the upper 90s,
which is just a tad above normal for mid-July.

By next Monday/Tuesday, ensemble guidance suggests the western
ridge will retrograde into the Central Plains/Mid-Mississippi
Valley, with North Texas situated on its southern flank. The
subtle but consequential increase in heights and subsidence will
help push highs near or slightly above the century mark at many
locations. Heat indices will accordingly rise across the area by
early next week, likely requiring additional heat advisories.

Additional opportunities for significant precipitation appear
practically nil until next weekend at the earliest. Over the past
30 days, much of the forecast area has received only 25-50% of
its normal precipitation.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...potential for isolated convection this afternoon.

VFR conditions and light/variable winds will continue through the
forecast period. The only concern this afternoon continues to be
the low potential for an isolated shower or storm to impact some
of the sites (especially east of I-35). The presence of a weak
boundary along with diurnal heating may trigger a few showers/
storms, but limited moisture should keep coverage fairly isolated.
Confidence remains too low to include VCTS at this time, but
adjustment to the forecast may be needed within the next 1-3
hours. Anything that develops should diminish after sunset, with
no additional impact expected the rest of the period.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  97  77  96 /  10   0  10   0   0
Waco                96  73  97  74  95 /  20   0  10   0  10
Paris               92  71  94  72  94 /  10   0  10   0   5
Denton              97  73  98  73  97 /  10   0  10   0   0
McKinney            95  73  97  74  95 /  20   0  10   0   0
Dallas              96  77  98  77  97 /  20   0  10   0   5
Terrell             93  72  95  72  94 /  20   0  10   0   5
Corsicana           95  74  97  74  95 /  20   5  10   0  10
Temple              96  72  97  72  95 /  20   0  10   0  10
Mineral Wells       96  72  97  72  97 /   5   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$