845
FXUS64 KFWD 102322
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Rest of this Evening through Thursday/

Another hot summer`s day is coming to a gradual end across North
and Central Texas this evening. Several outflow boundaries have
spread across much of the Metroplex, leading to very isolated
thunderstorm activity. This will come to an end with the loss of
daytime heating as we approach sunset, which will give way to
clearing skies and muggy overnight conditions. Lows tonight will
generally range in the low to mid 70s for much of the area.

The summer heat will continue into tomorrow as highs approach the
mid to upper 90s once again. It`s entirely possible that residual
outflow boundaries will linger through tomorrow, which may serve
as focus points for another afternoon of isolated thunderstorms.
Lightning will be the main hazards with these storms. Coverage
will remain fairly limited given a lack of substantial moisture,
so we will opt to keep PoPs around 10% for now. Surface winds will
obtain a more pronounced southerly to southeasterly component,
but will remain fairly light at around 5 to 10 mph.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 335 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/
/Friday Through the Middle of Next Week/

Throughout the upcoming weekend, the Lone Star State will remain
beneath a persistent col. Sandwiched between a ridge over the
Desert Southwest and a remarkably strong Bermuda high, Texas will
see near-normal mid-level heights and seasonal daytime
temperatures as a result. An inverted trough will nose in from
Mexico, which may increase cloudiness and introduce rain chances
into Central Texas. In addition, the weakness aloft may encourage
sea breeze showers/storms that could move into our Central and
East Texas counties.

The troughing may persist across West Texas next week, which will
prevent ridging from fully re-establishing itself. But with little
rainfall across much of North Texas, dormant vegetation and soil
moisture deficits should allow temperatures to climb back above
normal. With adequate sunshine, triple-digit highs area likely
next week from North Central Texas westward into the Big Country.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...Low chance for isolated thunderstorms.

VFR will prevail across all TAF sites through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms continue to propagate along several outflow
boundaries that are currently spreading across much of the D10
and surrounding areas. All of this activity will come to an end
with the loss of daytime heating, which will lead to clearing
skies. Winds will remain relatively light from the south.

More of the same can be expected through tomorrow afternoon as
well, although with slightly more limited coverage. Confidence
remains too low to include a mention in this set of TAFs and may
need to be reassessed in future issuances.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  97  77  97  77 /   0  10   0   0   0
Waco                74  97  74  96  75 /   0  10   0  10   5
Paris               71  94  71  95  73 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              73  98  73  98  74 /   0  10   0   0   0
McKinney            73  97  73  96  75 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dallas              77  98  77  98  78 /   0  10   0   0   0
Terrell             72  96  73  94  74 /   0  10   0   5   5
Corsicana           74  97  74  95  75 /   5  10   0  10   5
Temple              72  97  73  95  74 /   0  10   0  10   5
Mineral Wells       72  98  71  97  73 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$