341
FXUS64 KFWD 111057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
557 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Only minor grid edits were made to the morning forecast package.
Latest CAM guidance continues to highlight an area from the DFW
Metroplex and west for a slight chance at isolated, garden-variety
storms later this afternoon. Lingering, weak outflows boundaries
may also reside in this area from yesterday`s convection and could
serve as a focus for development. Nonetheless, dry air will keep
coverage quite sparse and high cloud bases may turn this more into
a virga-type situation. Sporadic lightning and brief, gusty winds
will be the main impacts at any lucky locations that get under a
storm. Most locations will remain dry! See the discussion below
for more short-term details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

As North and Central Texas remain under a persistent col, mostly
sunny and hot conditions will continue into Thursday and Friday.
Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s and heat index values
approaching the century mark each afternoon. The weakness in the
upper-level height field may allow for a few very isolated,
diurnally-driven thunderstorms to develop across portions of North
and Central Texas in the vicinity of any lingering weak outflow
boundaries. Like yesterday, convection will struggle against some
relatively dry mid-level and low-level air. Therefore, expect
storms to mature and collapse quite rapidly and coverage to remain
sparse (less than 15%).

Strengthening moist, low-level southerly flow and an inverted
mid-level trough axis moving over portions of South and Central
Texas will increase chances for showers and storms across our far
southern zones Friday afternoon/evening. We will keep 15-30% PoPs
contained to our Brazos Valley counties and the Killeen-Temple
MSA for now. Lightning and brief, gusty winds will be the primary
hazards.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 328 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/
/Saturday through Wednesday/

Through the weekend, North Central Texas will remain under the
well-advertised col persisting between the upper high over the
Rockies and a second ridge draped along the Gulf Coast. The
weakness in the height field mentioned in the short term
discussion will linger in our vicinity through Saturday. This
feature, coupled with an active sea breeze, will facilitate the
development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across
our southeastern zones Saturday afternoon.

From Sunday on through the middle of next week, the Gulf Coast
ridge will gradually backbuild into North Texas, leading to a
subtle increase in heights and deep layer thicknesses. This
ridging will effectively prevent the development of any
precipitation across the region through the middle of next week.

While most daytime highs Saturday and Sunday should be limited to
the mid to upper 90s areawide, the slow increase in subsidence
and thicknesses should yield daily readings in the upper 90s to low
100s Monday through Wednesday. While we`re not expecting a major
surge in humidity through the extended period, the increase in
temperatures will promote afternoon heat indices on the order of
105 to 109 degrees next week, particularly along and east of I-35.
Heat advisories may thus resume for some areas by
Tuesday/Wednesday.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions with light south flow will prevail through the TAF
period for all terminals. FEW to SCT cigs at 9-10kft will
overspread much of North and Central Texas later today. Like
yesterday, a few very isolated, garden-variety thunderstorms may
develop later this afternoon. Coverage will be quite sparse with a
~15% chance for impacts near the terminals. We will opt out of a
VCTS addition in the TAF for now, but an inclusion may be needed
later today if a healthy cumulus field develops in the vicinity of
D10 and KACT.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  78  97  78  96 /  20   0   5   0   5
Waco                97  75  95  76  95 /  10   0  10   0  10
Paris               94  72  95  74  93 /   5   0   0   0  10
Denton              98  75  98  74  97 /  20   0   0   0   5
McKinney            97  75  97  75  96 /  20   0   5   0   5
Dallas              98  78  98  78  97 /  20   0   5   0   5
Terrell             96  73  95  74  94 /  20   0  10   0  10
Corsicana           96  75  95  76  95 /  10   0  10   5  10
Temple              97  74  95  74  93 /  10   0  20   5  10
Mineral Wells       98  73  98  73  96 /  20   0   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$